The Mayhem of Taiwan’s Presidential Race

Democratic People’s Party presidential candidate, Vice President Lai Ching-te, joins hands with running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, a former US envoy. The two are seen as frontrunners in Taiwan’s 2024 presidential race. (Photo: AP News/Chiang Ying-ying)

Following a spectacular show of contempt, the Taiwanese presidential race is right back where it started.

In a televised meeting on Thursday, plans for a 2024 unity ticket between two of Taiwan’s major political parties fell apart due to disagreements over which candidate would top the ticket. The parties in question, the longstanding Kuomintang (KMT) and the relatively new Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), both share the goal of making peace with China (PRC) and aim to force the more anti-PRC Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) out of power. But live on stage, the planned demonstration of the coalition’s strength quickly devolved into a display of hostility between the parties, ending any hope of a joint run despite the efforts of independent candidate Terry Gou, who has now also withdrawn from the race.

The unity plan was initially announced on November 15 with significant fanfare, raising opposition hopes of beating out the DPP’s candidate, Vice President Lai Ching-te, who has consistently led the race. Polling suggested that ending the opposition’s divide would give them a leg up over Lai, who has been drawing under 40% support thus far. The agreement was also seen as harmful to Gou, a magnate who had been running as a self-funded candidate to present an alternative. KMT and TPP personnel had also planned to use experts to determine an equitable division on the ticket. Hope grew among supporters, who saw an opportunity to better relations with China.

However, such hopes quickly unraveled. Even before the event, news emerged last Saturday that disagreements had developed between the two parties over polling results. While the KMT claimed its candidate Hou Yu-ih, mayor of New Taipei, clearly beat the TPP’s Ko Wen-je, former mayor of Taipei, the TPP declared a tie in its own polling investigation. At the time, the parties asserted their partnership would continue. But the rift only deepened Thursday. According to officials, Ko refused to attend a meeting with Hou to resolve the disagreement, leaving Hou waiting for hours. The talks then moved to Taipei’s Grand Hyatt Hotel, and journalists descended on the site. Hou waited nearly half an hour, and when Ko finally arrived, he bore a resentful expression. The meeting itself only confirmed that there was little common ground left.

TPP presidential candidate Ko Wen-je waves to the press with running mate Cynthia Wu Hsin-ying. The TPP plans to run its own ticket after unity talks with the KMT collapsed. (Photo: AP News/Chiang Ying-ying)

Predictions of the KMT-TPP split’s effect on the election, to be held January 13, have varied. Lai, joined by newly announced running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, who served as the Taiwanese envoy to the United States, is still seen as the frontrunner. Some characterize the opposition’s debacle as damaging, with their chaos only increasing Lai’s lead, and point to the episode’s strangeness in a normally respectable political environment. Others, though, point to polling showing boosts for Hou and Ko. The DPP does have difficulties to handle, facing criticism on its eight-year handling of the island. Many Taiwanese, especially younger generations, have expressed anger over high costs and low wages.

Whatever the result, the impact is likely to be felt around the world, as Beijing and Washington wrangle over Taiwan’s status. Suspicion abounds over possible Chinese meddling in the election, as a way to subvert Taiwan’s de facto independence without a possibly costly invasion. It has invested in political and cultural influence on the island, and such efforts have not gone unnoticed. In his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the recent APEC summit in San Francisco, U.S. President Joe Biden warned Beijing against “any interference, at all.” This remark, along with China’s economic slowdown and increasingly harsh political landscape, has been labeled a potential reason for the collapse of the KMT-TPP partnership. In any case, a likely Lai victory is expected to intensify Chinese hostilities towards the island, and worsen an already perilous situation.