State Elections in India Begin, Testing Support for the BJP
A rally in support of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh on Thursday, Nov. 9. Source: PTI
On Tuesday, the state legislature elections within the Indian states of Mizoram and Chhattisgarh began. Elections in the states of Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan are set to begin later this week. These elections are an important test of the popularity of the current ruling national party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), against its main competitor, the Indian National Congress (INC). Opinion polls conducted by the domestic outlet, ABP News, suggest the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh are nearly evenly split between supporting the Congress and BJP.
Currently, the BJP controls the legislature of Madhya Pradesh and its close ally, the Mizo National Front (MNF), controls the legislature of Mizoram. The Congress Party controls the legislatures of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and a regional non-affiliated party, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), controls Telangana.
The BJP’s current head, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, first came to power in 2014. He swept the 2019 national elections with the largest increase in voter share in India’s history, and still remains immensely popular with the general public. By contrast, the Congress party faced its worst ever defeat in 2014, and Congress’s leader Rahul Gandhi himself lost his seat in the legislature during the subsequent 2019 elections.
To counter the BJP’s immense popularity, Rahul Gandhi formed the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) with 26 other regional parties in July of this year. Its stated goal is to oust the BJP from its control of the central government. The alliance gained support in prior regional elections, scoring a major victory in the South Indian state of Karnataka. It was formerly the BJP’s only stronghold in South India. The alliance subsequently gained control of the northern state of Himachal Pradesh, in back to back electoral defeats for the BJP.
Prime Minister Modi giving a speech at a rally in Congress-led Rajasthan in late May. Source:Twitter/@BJP4India
Due to the successes of both parties in recent years, independent observers project the elections will be especially competitive – and both parties are investing heavily into their campaigns. Modi toured the states before the election’s announcement, and Congress announced welfare schemes, which involve significant financial assistance, for women and farmers in the contested regions.
The elections in Mizoram, a northeastern state, are of particular importance to the BJP. The elections represent how much sway the BJP has over Northeast India, which is relatively isolated from the rest of the country. Recent developments in the neighboring state of Manipur made the broader region’s population wary of the BJP, but the BJP still requires some local support within the Northeast to ensure regional stability.
Despite the recent setbacks faced by his party, Modi remains popular with Indians and is still projected to win the 2024 Indian general election. However, Congress’s INDIA alliance is also slated to do well in the election, and the ongoing regional elections could serve as a valuable chance to further turn the tides on the BJP and potentially win in 2024.
Globally, India’s diplomatic reach increased under Modi’s governance. However, international observers raised concerns over the surge in violence by Hindu Nationalists and the clampdown on independent media that occurred during his rule. If voters also show fatigue over these issues through supporting the BJP less, Modi should seriously address these concerns to maintain his hold on power.