Top Ukraine General Calls War a “Stalemate” — West Quietly Pushes Negotiations

Ukrainian soldiers take cover in a frontline trench during the battle of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region on March 5, 2023. (AP Photo/Libkos)

In a recent interview with The Economist, top Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzhny admitted that the war against Russia has reached a stalemate — comparing the situation in Eastern Ukraine to Northern France during World War I. 

“Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” said General Zaluzhny, the Commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian military. He added that absent major technological advancements, he does not predict the “deep and beautiful breakthrough” that many had hoped for. 

Zaluzhny argued that a long war favors Russia, as they have a larger population and can more easily replace front-line soldiers than Ukraine. He also acknowledged that he had underestimated Russia’s willingness to take casualties, saying “that was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.”

Zaluzhny’s claim mirrors assertions made in a set of US Intelligence documents that were leaked illegally in April after Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old Air National Guardsman, posted them onto a Minecraft Discord server. 

After Zalyzkny’s comments circulated, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his office condemned the interview, claiming that it “eases the work” of Russia and has caused “panic” among Kyiv’s Western backers. 

The fracture between Zelensky and Zaluzhny comes after five months of Ukraine’s “counteroffensive” that has all but failed. 

The offensive consisted of three large-scale attacks along the roughly 600-mile (965-km) front line but was unable to break through Russian defenses or yield results in any noteworthy capacity. While specific casualty counts are nearly impossible to calculate under the fog of war, U.S. officials estimated in August that the total number of casualties since Feb. 2022 was nearly half a million.

A map illustrating Russia’s hold over large swaths of Eastern Ukraine. (Al Jazeera)

According to NBC News, U.S. and European leaders have begun to suggest to the Ukrainian government behind the scenes that they may need to enter peace negotiations with Russia — a stunning reversal from consistent statements since February 2022 maintaining that Ukraine alone would decide when the war will end. 

Western officials are primarily concerned about Ukraine’s depleting troop count, as Russia appears to have an endless supply. Recent domestic political developments inside the Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives have further complicated the reliability of military aid to Kyiv. 

The outbreak of war in the Middle East has led some Ukrainians to fear that their cause will increasingly take a back seat in the eyes of its Western backers. This has prompted Zelensky to announce unequivocal support for Israel — despite the country’s usage of wide-scale bombing tactics that he has labeled “war crimes” when perpetrated by Russia. 

While the officials interviewed by NBC News suggested that security guarantees could be provided by the West to Ukraine to sweeten the deal, there remain few indications that Russian President Vladamir Putin is ready to enter negotiations. 

Despite Western sanctions imposed on Moscow at the beginning of the war, Russia has restructured its economy to adapt to what Putin calls a “special military operation.” While the economic shift has caused a labor shortage in Russia by absorbing much of the country’s workforce into its army and weapons industry, it has allowed Moscow to boost military production — especially artillery shells which it uses to keep Ukrainian forces at bay. 

Russia has furthermore invested heavily in air defenses, limiting the value of Western aircraft that has slowly trickled into Ukraine’s arsenal. 

Without a negotiated settlement, analysts now generally agree that the war is destined to continue for an extended period of time and has descended into a war of attrition, in which Russia has the manpower to prevail.