One Year After Invasion in Ukraine: Chancellor Scholz Maintains Germany’s Initiative

Olaf Scholtz before the German Bundestag on March 2nd, 2023. Photo: AP / Markus Schreiber

Four days ago, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany addressed the German Parliament, just over a year after delivering his famous "Zeitenwende" speech. That speech, which came just three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, addressed Germany's role within the EU, its economic power, and its cautious defense policy.

In particular, the speech pledged a significant increase in military spending, a total course correction from German military policy since German Unification in 1989. Scholz's speech five days ago focused on both German policy and the policy of other countries regarding the invasion of Ukraine, with China's military policy being his main focus.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reported that China is considering providing "lethal support" to aid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Scholz's visit to the United States and his speech to the German Bundestag reflected this report.

Scholz began his speech on a positive note, mentioning China's continued opposition to biological and chemical weapons, outlined in its 12-Point Plan. Scholz then condemned China's lack of reaffirmation of the consensus achieved by nations in the G20 Summit in Bali, specifically the condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He pressed, articulating his expectations from China and directing his speech towards the Chinese government, stating, “One 

can rightly expect China to discuss its ideas with the main affected party - the Ukrainians and President Zelenskyy… My message is clear: use your influence in Moscow to press for the withdrawal of Russian troops." Scholz also added that China must not supply weapons "to the aggressor Russia."

Scholz also mentioned the plan his Zeitenwende speech put into place, pledging to focus 2% of spending on the military, which Germany is on track to miss in the next two years. He committed that Germany will contribute 30,000 soldiers to a new force structure of the NATO military alliance as of 2025. "We are doing all this in view of our increased responsibility and the higher expectations that our allies rightly place on Germany as the most populous and economically powerful country in Europe," the chancellor said.

Thus far, China is adhering to the warning given by Scholz and other Western politicians. A Chinese senior diplomat assured representatives at the U.N., stating, "Sending weapons will not bring peace" but will add "fuel to the fire."

Chancellor Scholz has also "expressed a desire to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping" over the issue, but it is not clear whether such a meeting will take place. Ending his speech, Scholz elaborated a vision with more security guarantees from other Western countries for Ukraine, but did not specify what form they might take.

Shortly after his speech before the Bundestag, Chancellor Scholtz visited President Biden in Washington D.C. Scholtz conferred with President Biden about Chinese sanctions, which, while still at a preliminary stage, aim to coordinate an economic response should China provide assistance to the Russian military.
The meeting appeared brief and subdued - Scholtz didn’t travel with a group of journalists to the White House, and the pair held no press conference after their meeting. President Joe Biden spoke to the point about the meeting. “As NATO allies, we’re making the alliance stronger and more capable,”

President Joe Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholtz in front of the press inside the White House. Photo: AP Photo/Susan Walsh

Scholz, a year after his Zeitenwende speech, continues to direct the Bundestag with his plans for the future and coordinate with the leaders to respond to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

He has proved competent in his response to the energy crisis Germany faced this winter, receiving praise, although he only had to deal with a limited, mild winter in Germany. Scholz’s senses for international leadership and responsibility have fully matured since his appointment 18 months ago.