New Intelligence Revealed About the Nord Stream Pipeline Attack

Pipes to be used in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Sassnitz, Germany. Photo: Laetitia Vancon/NYT.

In late September, Swedish authorities were alerted to leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea. The pipelines, which would have carried natural gas from Russia to Western Europe, were believed by both European and Russian leaders to be the target of sabotage.

This week, the New York Times reported that US officials have received new intelligence that suggests that a pro-Ukraine group was responsible for the attack. 

Questions regarding the message the saboteurs intended to send, and who stood to benefit from such an attack, remain important in discourse about the impact of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the relations between Russia and the West in general. At different points, both EU members and Russia have accused the other of perpetrating or supporting the incident. Even President Biden and American forces have been targeted by similar claims.

For years, leaders from the US, Ukraine, and several EU countries opposed to the Nord Stream pipelines criticized the potential increase in European energy reliance on Russia, fearing that it could be used as a political weapon against support for Ukraine. The pipeline was also a blow to Ukraine’s economy, since its route through the Baltic Sea enabled Russia to bypass Ukrainian transit tariffs and transport gas directly to Germany.

Gazprom, the Russian energy cooperation responsible for the Nord Stream’s gas supply, indefinitely shut off the Nord Stream 1 pipeline weeks before the attack, citing technical problems exacerbated by EU sanctions. Shortly after the attack, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that “It is very difficult to imagine that such an act of a terrorism could have happened without the involvement of a state of some kind.” Indeed, Western investigations found that the pipeline leaks were caused by large amounts of explosives and that the attack was coordinated in some professional manner.

Nord Stream 2 leaking in on Sept. 28, 2022, following a large underwater explosion. Photo: Swedish Coast Guard/AP.

In the new intelligence reports that the New York Times announced, there is no evidence pointing to a connection between the suspected attackers, whose nationalities are unknown, and Ukraine or President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s administration. The Ukrainian government categorically denies any involvement or knowledge. One of Zelenskyy’s advisors tweeted that they have “no information about ‘pro-Ukraine saboteur groups” and added a joke about how Russian media would cover such an incident.

On March 8, German authorities announced that they inspected a ship in January that was rented in Poland and was allegedly involved in the attack. They, along with leaders from several EU countries, have urged caution; investigations are still ongoing and no sudden, comprehensive conclusions should be drawn from the new reports. Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister, claimed that the attack could have been a “false flag operation staged to blame Ukraine” as much as it could have involved state actors.

Many elements of the Nord Stream sabotage still remain unclear, such as the exact motives, identities, and allegiances of the perpetrators. The attack is an example, in any case, of the war’s direct overflow into Western European politics, as well as a further increase in geopolitical tension between Russia and NATO members.