The Dilemma of Oil Sanctions and Democratic Progress
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro delivers his annual address at the National Assembly in Caracas, Venezuela, Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. Image Source: AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos
The United States must consider its next steps, as the temporary license to ease restrictions on Venezuela’s oil sanction is set to expire on Thursday. The agreement's condition, which provides necessary breathing room for Venezuela's oil and gas sectors, would depend on President Nicolas Maduro making democratic progress by the upcoming election date of July 28.
On Monday, a State Department official stated that the license would not be renewed unless there is progress “on commitments for free and fair elections this year.” This statement arrived days after representatives from the United States and Venezuela convened in Mexico to discuss potential negotiations over the oil sanctions and democratic reform.
Previous oppositional party representative Maria Corina Machado speaks to supporters at a campaign event in Caracas, Venezuela, Jan. 23, 2024. Image Source: AP Photo/Jesus Vargas
Yet, the prospect of a democratic presidential race in Venezuela is weak. In January, months after the agreement, Maduro effectively banned the opposition party leader, Maria Corina Machado, from running.
Venezuela’s supreme court has upheld this ban, accusing Machado of “fraud and tax violations” and of “seeking the economic sanctions the U.S. imposed on Venezuela in the last decade.”
The United States has several routes to take to retaliate, and one includes a more restrictive license. This would potentially allow Venezuela to continue selling oil on the world markets but ban U.S. dollars in these transactions.
Maduro has displayed indifference towards any of these measures. On Monday, he stated on his weekly television program, “We are going ahead with a license or without a license, we aren't a gringo colony.”
Experts and critics have stated that they knew this would happen and fear that the United States has arrived at a lose-lose situation. Eric Farnsworth, a Latin America expert, said, “We gave up our leverage when we lifted the sanctions in the first place … based on a promise that everybody knew he wasn’t going to abide by.” He continued, “Now, do you try to reimpose sanctions, and at what level?”
The reality is that this situation goes beyond the realm of government and sanctions and directly affects the citizens of Venezuela, who hope for a democratic future.
Antonio Eccardi, a Venezuelan candidate, sat down with EL PAIS for an interview discussing the next potential steps for this election. He is one of twelve candidates permitted to participate in the presidential race. When asked whether politics in Venezuela have improved, Eccardi responded, “No, they’re potentially even worse. What has happened is that we have realized that the decision not to vote is a path to failure.”
Eccardi states that various Chavistas, including Maduro himself, have said the party would step down. “ Nobody in their right mind believes they will hand over their power because they are good people. They will do so if they see that an immense popular majority speaks out in a vote.”
The upcoming expiration of the temporary license to ease restrictions on Venezuela’s oil sanction presents a critical point for U.S. policy toward the nation. With the July 28 election date approaching and the conditions of the agreement largely unmet due to Maduro's actions, the United States faces tough decisions.
The potential for more restrictive measures poses significant implications, not just diplomatically, but for the Venezuelan people yearning for a democratic future. As the situation unfolds, the voices of candidates like Antonio Eccardi represent the urgency for international engagement that prioritizes the aspirations of the Venezuelan population. The path forward remains uncertain, yet essential in shaping Venezuela's political landscape trajectory and its relationship with the international community.