Revisionism or Revanchism: Japan’s New Foreign Policy
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida addresses the United States’ Congress: NBC
On April 14, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida sat down with CNN to discuss his upcoming summit with President Biden. During the discussion, Kishida discussed the rising tensions around the world as well as how Japan’s foreign policy is acclimating to the new geopolitical environment. According to Kishida, the world is at a “historic turning point… Russia’s Ukraine aggression, the continuing situation [in] the Middle East, as well as the situation in East Asia” have shook the global order to its core.
Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures, and the Japanese government is reacting accordingly. According to Kishida, “Japan has made a decision to fundamentally reinforce its defense capabilities and… greatly chang[e] Japan’s security policy.” This comes on the heels of Japan’s passage of the largest military budget in the country’s history. In December 2023, the Japanese parliament approved 43 trillion Yen (equivalent to $302 billion) in defense spending between 2023-2027. The passage of this spending bill constituted a 16.5% increase in year-over-year military spending from 2023 to 2024. The bolstered budget was a response to the same global conflicts the world faces today; however, as the likelihood of escalation in the Gaza conflict continues, the increased military budget appears to render a savvy investment.
The increased military budget and posture does not come without criticism. In fact, the recent moves by Kishida have stoked controversy around Asia and especially in China where the memory of Japanese WWII-era militarism is especially acute. Kishida addressed the controversy, stating “In our neighborhood, there are countries that are developing ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons… [Japan and the United States] can work together to improve the region’s peace and stability.”
Kishida also made sure to address his relationship with President Biden and the greater Japanese-American alliance, stating that the alliance is becoming “ever more important.” Japan will likely remain a key ally to the United States as the U.S.-led global order starts to unravel. Just as how historically the United States looked to Japan to bolster its position in East Asia vis-á-vis the USSR so that the United States could deploy more resources to Europe and the Middle East, the United States may look to Kishida’s government to hold over the China threat until the United States can resolve the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. This would be a tall task for Japan alone; however, the increased military budget, emboldened rhetoric, and rapprochement with South Korea will surely help.
Japanese Naval Exercise: Twitter/JMSDF
Kishida’s upcoming meeting with President Biden is set to be a big one. The meeting will be the first trilateral summit between Japan, the United States, and the Philippines, and will also include an address to a joint session of Congress. The meeting will discuss how the three can coordinate a response to a possible invasion of Taiwan, as well as addressing regional threats from North Korea and Russia. Whether it is derived from a defensive nature, a product of the times, or a return to Japan’s lost military ambitions, the Japanese defense revival which started under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appears here to stay.