Three Election in Three Years: Portugal’s Instability
Portuguese lawmakers convene to vote on Prime Minister Montenegro. (AP Photo/Armando Franca)
While the rest of Western Europe grapples with uncertainty regarding the current political climate, Portugal has been facing internal instability for the past three years. On March 11, the Portuguese parliament voted against the incumbent central-right government after about a year in office. This vote has set the stage for the third election in three years, signaling a potential political disruption.
In January 2022, the Socialist Party (PS) of Portugal won a majority in Parliament. With a large enough percentage of the vote, they were not required to form a partnership with another party. However, this success was short-lived; in November of 2023, Prime Minister António Costa was investigated for involvement in lithium and hydrogen production firms. The allegations prompted a new election in the nation.
In 2024, the Social Democratic Party ( PSD) was elected into office. Unlike the Socialist Party, PSD received a small majority of the votes and the political groups trailing behind did not garner enough support to help it form a majority coalition in Parliament. The Socialist Party received 29% and the Chega Party (a right-wing populist political organization) received less than 20%. Subsequently, PSD formed a minority government, with only 80 seats out of 230. However, after only a year in power, PSD’s prime minister Luís Montenegro has been voted out of office.
Montenegro’s family owns a real estate consulting company and the Portuguese press reported a potential conflict of interest as one of the firm’s clients' settlements were dependent on the government. Montenegro claimed that he had turned over ownership of the company to his wife before being elected and a 15-day waiting period was proposed to allow PSD to gather proof of Montenegro’s honesty. Montenegro petitioned for a private meeting with the Socialist Party secretary general to reach a solution but his request was denied. Pedro Nuno Santes, the leader of PS, insisted on taking a confidence vote in Parliament. Out of all the political groups voting, IL (a liberal political party) was the only one to vote in favor of PSD staying. With a majority of votes against the prime minister, PSD resigned.
Billboard in Lisbon, Portugal shows Montenegro and reads “50 Years of Corruption”. (AP Photo/Lucas Neves)
Although recent polls indicate that Portuguese citizens do not want another early vote, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced that the election to decide the next political coalition will take place in May. Threats of corruption have interrupted Parliament on multiple occasions and the country is faced with choosing between various leaders, many of whom have been involved in misconduct. In addition to the accusations Costa received, past members of Chega were expelled for stealing luggage and soliciting a minor for sex. Moreover, Montenegro has claimed he would run for office again and has denied the accusations on multiple accounts.
Since early February, Western European countries have worked together to understand their capabilities in supporting Ukraine and developing more independence from the United States. At a delicate moment such as this, Portugal’s stability is complicated further. The Portuguese parliament is currently investing over $22 billion in European Union development funds, but an election may derail this effort. The Portuguese are faced with a decision that will impact not only the nation itself, but Portugal’s role and contributions in Europe moving forward.
As the majority of Europe grapples with international affairs and their role in the Russo-Ukrainian war, Portugal has concerns at home. The actions of politicians across the government have prompted two early elections for citizens, displaying the country’s current vulnerability. With a third election scheduled for May, citizens are faced with choosing between various politicians, many of which have been called into question. The upcoming election will be another attempt to secure a stable government, critical to the country’s future.