Pope Francis's Health and the Vatican's Subtle Power in Shifting the Geopolitical Landscape of Europe

A vigil outside the Agostino Gemelli Polyclinic where Pope Francis is hospitalized in Rome, Monday, Feb. 24, 2025. (Source: AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

Since being hospitalized on February 14th, Pope Francis has contracted pneumonia and a mild kidney failure, but is said to be in stable condition. The Pope's declining health presents a shift in the geopolitical landscape of Europe. While the Vatican's influence is not tangible, its soft power significantly shapes international affairs and impacts European politics in nuanced ways. Hence, a transition in power of the Catholic Church will undoubtedly alter these dynamics, potentially leading to changes across the continent.

The Vatican's historical role as a mediator in international conflicts remains significant. The Vatican’s diplomatic corps actively fosters behind-the-scenes relationships with world leaders, leveraging its moral authority to promote peace and reconciliation. The Church remains actively engaged in global politics, exercising quiet diplomacy and influencing issues ranging from peace negotiations to humanitarian aid. Therefore, its ability to foster dialogue and build consensus, particularly in complex geopolitical situations, is a significant asset, even if its direct power to enforce outcomes is limited.

A photo of Pope Francis is projected onto the Obelisk in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Sunday, Feb. 23, 2025. (Source: AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)

Any power the Vatican has is derived from its moral authority, its extensive network of relationships, and its ability to shape narratives. Though the overall influence of religion is declining, the Church’s opinions are felt in regions with substantial Catholic populations, including Western European countries such as Italy and Portugal. The Pope's position on issues like climate change, economic inequality, and refugee resettlement frequently shapes the stances of political parties and influences public discourse, albeit indirectly. This soft power is manifested in its ability to frame debates, shape public perception, and provide a moral compass for political actors, even if it cannot unilaterally dictate policy.

The upcoming papal succession is, therefore, a noteworthy geopolitical event. Rather than immediate, dramatic power shifts, this transition will unfold through subtle adjustments in direction and emphasis. Potential successors hold varying theological perspectives that will likely translate into subtly different approaches to international relations and engagement with European governments. 

A more conservative pope might lead to a less interventionist approach to global politics, potentially reducing the Vatican's role in mediating conflicts or advocating for specific policy positions in Europe.  This could involve a shift towards less publicly engaged diplomacy, a focus on internal Church matters, or a change in the Church's public stances on controversial issues. 

Conversely, a more progressive successor might maintain or even enhance the current pope's engagement, subtly altering the balance of power in certain political debates across the continent.  This could involve a continued or even increased emphasis on social justice issues, leading to more vocal support for specific policies at the European level. The outcome will depend significantly on the successor's personal priorities and their understanding of the Church's role in the modern world.

Pope Francis waves to the crowd from the central balcony of St. Peter's Basilica at the Vatican, Wednesday, March 13, 2013. Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, who chose the name of Francis, is the 266th pontiff of the Roman Catholic Church. (Source: AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

The implications for Europe are significant. Changes in the Vatican's approach to geopolitics will subtly ripple through various policy areas. The Church's stance on issues such as migration and human rights will continue to subtly influence debates within the European Union, impacting policy formations and public opinion. A shift towards a more conservative approach might lead to more muted EU discussions on these topics, potentially affecting the bloc's cohesion and its response to humanitarian crises. Alternatively, a progressive successor could lead to continued or increased pressure on the EU to adopt more socially just and environmentally conscious policies.

In any case, the upcoming papal transition will likely result in a subtle shift in the balance of power, impacting the Church's influence on European policies and societies.