Brazil’s Coming Election Is Crucial For The Future Of The Amazon Rainforest
Critics fear the Amazon is being pushed to the point of no return under Jair Bolsonaro. Photo: Joédson Alves/EPA
According to government data published on On Feb 11, Brazil recorded the most deforestation ever in the Amazon rainforest for the month of January. According to Reuter’s report, preliminary satellite data from the government space research agency indicates that, in the last month, deforestation in Brazil's Amazon totalled 430 square kilometers, equaling an area more than seven times the size of Manhattan.
Further, researchers of a Brazilian non-profit have warned that destruction in Brazil's Amazon rainforest could rise another 16% in 2022. Brazil is home to 60% of the Amazon rainforest, which has historically been an important carbon sink, but forest fire and deforestation has been turning it to a carbon source in the last decade. The new data from Brazil follows a trend of increasing destruction of the rainforest ever since Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro took office in 2019. In November of last year, government data raised similar concerns, showing that deforestation in Brazil’s rainforest broke a 15-year record.
Despite Bolsonaro’s pledges such as the promise to double the money reserved for environmental enforcement and to end deforestation by 2030, the deforestation data in January did not seem to echo his promises. In fact, since 2019, environmental enforcement in Brazil has been slashed, a record low number of fines issued, and the environment budget has been cut while deforestation in the Amazon surged. Furthermore, Bolsonaro supporters are now pushing to vote through pieces of legislation that encourage behaviors such as land grabbing, use of pesticides, and hunting.
As deforestation of the Amazon Rainforest continues to worsen, the date of the next Brazil election approaches. Due to be held in October 2022, the upcoming election is much anticipated by the environmentalists, who are in the hope that Brazil would vote out Bolsonaro and stop destructive policies from going further. An article published by the Economist in November of last year said that The 2022 election could be a chance for Brazil’s government to reverse policies that have contributed to global climate change.
Chart of deforestation trend in southern Amazonas State. Photo: PRODES Terrabrasilis 2021; SICAR 2020
Currently, the election polls show a two horse race between Bolsonaro and the leftist Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was the country’s president between 2003 and 2010. Since last year, the polls have been in favor of Lula. As of November, Bolsonaro’s approval ratings slipped to a record low of 19% in late November, with 60% of the population saying he is doing a bad job.
According to Time magazine, Bolsonaro’s slip in support is mainly due to the current squeeze on Brazilian wallets, as surging inflation rate and an unprecedented drought have stifled recovery from the pandemic, and Brazil’s economy entered a technical recession in the winter. Gustavo Ribeiro, a São Paulo-based political analyst, said in December, “Bolsonaro has very little chance at re-election unless economic conditions improve a lot”.
However, the outcome of the election might still be too early to tell. Bolsonaro has been a long proponent for more commercial farming and mining in the Amazon to help lift the region out of poverty, but he is not alone. Behind Bolsonaro is the support from the powerful agribusiness sector which makes up the Parliamentary Agricultural Front (FPA), a lobby in support of rapid expansion of large scale farmers and ranchers, whose members account for more than a third of the lower house and a quarter of the Senate seats. The Brazil president’s policies continuously fall in the demand of the FPA. As early as Bolsonaro’s first day in office, he issued a provisional measure, Medida Provisório 870, which takes away the responsibility for indigenous land demarcation from the government’s indigenous affairs agency and hands it over to the agriculture ministry, essentially giving industrial agribusiness advocates the power over issues of indigeous land demarcation.
Additionally, According to an article published by the Washington Post on Feb. 6th, Bolsonaro is shifting his focus to appealing to the poor, tripling his trips to the poor northeast region and lauding infrastructure projects, in an attempt to win their votes. Last August, Bolsonaro rolled out the Brazil Aid, a new welfare program, which pays about $80 per month per person to millions of poor people. It remains to be seen whether Lula, who has gained significant ground in southern and midwestern Brazil where Bolsonaro was previously stronger, will be able to keep his lead to the day of the election.