Op-Ed: What an “America First,” Trump Presidency means to Eastern Europe: An Overview
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with President-elect Donald Trump. Photo: Jim Watson, Getty Images
After weeks of tied polls, on Nov. 5 Donald Trump won a decisive victory in the United States presidential election. Though Trump has not been forthcoming about specific plans for European relations, he has made it clear that he will not keep the status quo.
In addition to the presidency, Republicans won control in both the House and the Senate, meaning Trump will likely receive congressional support for his foreign policy decisions. Trump ran on a campaign of isolationism, promising a message of “America First.” With the US as the main financial supporter of Ukraine’s defense against Russia, Trump’s presidency will have far-reaching implications in Eastern Europe.
Ukraine is likely the foreign country most acutely impacted by the election results. President Joe Biden committed over $175 billion in weapons, budget support, government aid, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Vice President Kamala Harris was steadfast in her commitment to continuing Biden’s policies if she won the election, while Trump argued it is Europe’s responsibility to support Ukraine.
While facing one of the strongest Russian offensives since the start of the war and just after North Korean forces had just been found deployed in the Kursk region, this isolationist win in the US came at a tense moment for Ukraine. In preparation for a Trump administration, Biden has sought to strengthen Ukraine further, approving the use of American long-range missiles and anti-personnel landmines.
Trump has said if he’s elected he would end the war in Ukraine, “in 24 hours”. Though he has not elaborated on his plan for this, Trump’s campaign rhetoric suggests he intends to end the war on President Vladimir Putin’s terms, meaning large territorial losses for Ukraine. This would set a troubling precedent for Putin to continue expansion in Eastern Europe, especially considering Trump’s antagonistic attitude towards the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). On the other hand, if Ukraine refuses to accept a peace agreement, European countries may be forced to further increase their support of Ukraine in the absence of American aid.
On Nov. 27, Trump announced his nomination of retired Gen. Keith Kellogg as special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. In 2022, Kellogg signed a letter to lawmakers calling for a delay of a new aid package to Ukraine and favors opening negotiations to end the war.
Outside of the security realm, Trump’s friendliness with populist, nationalist leaders could encourage democratic backsliding. Europe took a turn for the hard right in 2024, and Trump’s victory was publicly celebrated by leaders such as Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban, Dutch populist party leader Geert Wilders, and the Austrian far right Freedom Party. A Trump presidency bodes well for growing pro-Russia, anti immigration movements in Europe, meaning greater divides within the EU.
Trump’s economic impact on Europe will also be far reaching, with his plans to impose an up to 20% tariff on products from the EU and is expected to circumvent the European Commission to negotiate on trade. This could cut off up to 1.5% from European growth and limit investments in European businesses.
To prepare for the next four years, European leaders will need to work closely together. Trump’s across the board tariff plan could drop the value of the Euro up to 10% according to Goldman Sachs. His presidency also leaves the future of NATO, the World Health Organization, and the Paris Climate Agreement uncertain. If Europe can’t fortify its strategic autonomy and economic cooperation, some countries might instead try to seek protection from Trump by buying more US-made weapons.