Op-Ed: What the U.S.-Brokered Ceasefire in Lebanon Could Mean for Gaza
President Biden addresses the press in the Rose Garden on Nov. 6, 2024. (Photo: AP Photo/Manuel Balce)
Editor’s Note:
This piece was written in December 2024. Subsequent events have rendered some details outdated. Readers are encouraged to consult current sources after reading to ensure they have the most up-to-date information.
On Nov. 26, 2024, Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire between the two nations. Addressing the Israeli people, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the duration of the ceasefire would depend on the developments in Lebanon. He added, “With the full understanding of the United States, we are preserving full military freedom of action—if Hezbollah breaks the agreement and seeks to arm itself, we will attack.”
After nearly 14 months of conflict, the agreement — brokered by the United States and France — remains relatively fragile. This deal seeks to enforce U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the previous war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. Its enforcement would involve greater supervision over Hezbollah, placing much of the responsibility on the Lebanese military.
The 2006 peace agreement heavily relied on Lebanon’s 10,000-soldier military, a strategy that ultimately allowed Hezbollah to grow even stronger within the country. Once again, the United States began to train, equip, and fund the Lebanese military, though its success seems uncertain. Netanyahu’s statement announcing the ceasefire agreement suggests skepticism about the Lebanese military’s ability to confront and contain Hezbollah’s forces. On the other hand, with the authority to dismantle Hezbollah’s weapon-making facilities, monitor Lebanon’s borders, and support from the United States and France, the Lebanese military may still have a chance. Biden expressed confidence in Lebanon’s forces, stating that the U.S. believes they are up to the task, highlighting the differing views between the two leaders.
A joint statement from Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron explains that this ceasefire aims to “allow residents to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Blue Line,” referring to the heavily contested border between Lebanon and Israel. Although the agreement is currently limited to a 60-day ceasefire, Biden claimed the deal is “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities,” signifying another point of contention between him and Netanyahu.
Turkish protesters march against the blockade of aid to Gaza at a port in Istanbul. (Photo: AP Photo/Emrah Gurel)
With the joint U.S.-French success in brokering this peace deal, the possibility of peace in Gaza appears more tangible. Since the war began following the attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, a global movement advocating for an end to the conflict between Israel and Hamas has gained momentum. Many Americans have voiced outrage and called for a ceasefire in Gaza, and the ceasefire in Lebanon may serve as a signal that peace and compromise are achievable in the region. To advance these efforts, Biden posted a statement on X on Nov. 27, pledging that the U.S. will “make another push with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza.”
However, it is imperative to recognize that Israel’s objectives in Lebanon have always been fundamentally different from its goals in Palestine. Israel has yet to agree on a post-war plan, and Netanyahu’s political survival largely hinges on the outcome of this war. While he has expressed readiness for a ceasefire, Netanyahu has made it clear that he has no intentions of ending the war, emphasizing that the primary objective is the elimination of Hamas.
Even if the U.S. successfully brokers a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, it must consider the possibility that Netanyahu will not adhere to it. Israel has warned Lebanese citizens against returning home, demonstrating the fragile and temporary nature of this peace agreement. Israeli forces have continued bombing southern regions of Lebanon daily despite the ceasefire, threatening to break the truce in response to retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah.
Moreover, Israel’s invasion of Syria — its first since 1973 — just hours after the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, clearly signals that Netanyahu has no intentions of de-escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Given these conditions, it is unlikely that the ceasefire in Lebanon will be the “permanent cessation of hostilities” that Biden and Macron have described. It is unrealistic to believe that, even under pressure from the United States, Netanyahu would agree to a ceasefire that truly ends the suffering Palestinians have endured for more than a year. The U.S. has attempted, and failed, to broker a ceasefire agreement multiple times since the conflict began in October 2023.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, Netanyahu has been bolstered by the unwavering support of the United States government. The U.S. cannot simultaneously push for a ceasefire while continuing to fund and support the war that necessitates it in the first place. As public protests grow louder — driven in part by the outcome of this year’s elections — it seems unlikely that the U.S. will succeed in convincing Netanyahu to back down. The American response appears to be too little, too late.
As long as Netanyahu has more to lose than to gain from this conflict, it will persist, regardless of U.S. support.