Could the Rise in Iranian State-Sponsored Executions Provide the Dissent Necessary For A Regime Change?

A cleric walks through the shrine of Shiite Saint Abdulazim, during the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan, in Shahr-e-Ray, south of Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Human Rights organizations estimate that almost 1,000 state-sponsored executions took place in Iran throughout 2024 alone, the highest figure since 2008 and 20 times higher than in 2020. The majority of those executed were individuals with drug-related or murder charges, though protesters and political dissenters also made up a portion. Most recently on Jan. 7, 2025, a list of 54 security and political prisoners sentenced to death in Iran was released, showing that the republic also did not shy away from persecuting enemies of the state. 

The steady uptick in human rights violations has caused increased public scrutiny and dissent, of which has existed in Iran for decades. However, recent events imply that it could be possible for the public dissatisfaction to grow large enough to overthrow the Islamic Republic. Variations of protests have erupted across the state, from Islamic scholars using the Qur’an to denounce capital punishment, to hunger strikes in prisons, to public demonstrations. Iranians are uniting around their opposition to excessive use of authority to enact the death penalty and lack of transparency within the justice system. 

Iran ranks first in the world for capital punishments, an act considered by the international community to be a violation of human rights and the right to life. According to the BBC, the Islamic Republic has used state-sponsored executions as “a tool of political repression” to impose fear and control over its population. Essentially, as political and civil unrest increases, the number of death penalty convictions does as well. The most recent political demonstration sparking a rapid increase in the number of political executions took place in 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian who died while being detained in police custody. This was followed by wide-scale protests throughout the country, which the regime attempted to suppress by executing those who rebelled. 

This course of actions has turned into a feedback loop; the state’s actions cause public outrage, the people make public statements and demonstrations, the republic ramps up executions to incite fear and subdue the protests, then people protest the executions. The cycle repeats itself. “Instilling societal fear is the regime's only way to hold on to power," stated Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, Iran Human Rights Director. 

The Islamic Republic of Iran rose to power in 1979 after it overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah imposed by the US and Britain in 1953. A poor economy, corruption, and rapid westernization caused a group of individuals, led by Ruhollah Khomeini, to use Islam in a fundamentalist manner to gain control of a disillusioned population. It is often argued that the revolution of 1979 was Iran’s attempt of ridding itself of rapid westernization, which was led astray by extremist abuse of religion and a consolidation of power. 

For the last four decades, this has led to an even more corrupt government, one which disregards humanitarian rights, suppresses public opinion, and imposes religion onto its people. Scholars and analysts have cited that another regime change will have to come from within the state in the form of a true bottom-up approach. If this is the case, then it is simply a matter of calculating how much repression the Iranian people are able to tolerate before reaching the tipping point necessary for another revolution. Though the state has successfully toed the line between being authoritarian without inciting a revolt, it may soon go too far. 

The rapid increase in executions, coupled with other factors such as government corruption and economic mismanagement, may cause a new revolution, one which sees the death of the Islamic Republic.