Noboa vs. González: Ecuador’s Runoff Hinges on Fragile Political Coalitions
Reference Image of the Presidential Election Results from Feb. 9, 2025, by county. (Photo: FotoPRIMICIAS / Diana González)
Ecuador’s first-round presidential election on Feb. 9 turned out as predicted in its outcome yet surprising in its political ramifications. As expected, the country is heading to a runoff rematch between current President Daniel Noboa and leftist candidate Luisa González, the handpicked choice of former President Rafael Correa. But beyond this anticipated faceoff, the election revealed a deeper polarization and shifting political alliances that could redefine Ecuador’s future.
One of the most striking developments was the emergence of Leonidas Iza, leader of the Indigenous movement Pachakutik, as an unexpected power broker. While securing only 5.25 percent of the vote, Iza now holds leverage in a race where Noboa and González are separated by just 0.16 percentage points. Yet, rather than consolidating an alliance, a public feud between Correa and Iza has thrown the left’s coalition into question. This runoff is no longer just about two candidates, it has become a test of political strategy, ideological rifts, and the durability of Correísmo’s influence.
For Daniel Noboa, the first-round results were far from the decisive victory he had envisioned. While he finished ahead with 44.16 percent of the vote, his campaign had hoped to win outright and avoid a runoff as some National polling showed. His election-night silence, leaving his supporters waiting without a speech, suggested that even within his camp, the results were met with disappointment.
Noboa’s vulnerabilities stem from governance missteps and growing public dissatisfaction. His presidency has been dominated by harsh security measures, including military operations against organized crime, which, while initially popular, have drawn concerns over human rights abuses. Additionally, economic instability, power outages, and rising unemployment have eroded his appeal among middle-class and working-class voters.
In urban centers like Quito, Noboa performed well, winning 49.99 percent of the vote in the capital’s middle-class neighborhoods. But his path to victory in the runoff requires expanding beyond his core base—a challenge now that he faces a more consolidated leftist opposition.
Luisa González has often been framed as merely a political extension of Rafael Correa, but her campaign strategy has proven to be far more disciplined than anticipated. Unlike Noboa, she anticipated a second round and used the first-round results to project momentum rather than setback. Immediately following the vote count, she launched a media offensive, reinforcing the message that her campaign always expected a runoff and that Correísmo would only grow stronger in the second round.
Her strength lies in the resilience of Correísmo’s electoral machine, which remains dominant in rural areas and among working-class voters. She won in thirty out of sixty-five parishes in Quito, a sign that despite Correa’s legal troubles and exile, his movement remains deeply embedded in Ecuadorian politics.
However, her biggest challenge is the rift with Leonidas Iza, whose support could be crucial in securing broader left-wing unity. The very public dispute between Correa and Iza on Twitter shattered expectations that Pachakutik would automatically align with González. While González remains the natural left-wing alternative to Noboa, the indigenous movement has historically been wary of Correísmo, remembering Correa’s past clashes with Indigenous groupsand environmental activists.
Leonidas Iza and the Pachakutik movement now hold a decisive position in the election’s outcome, but their next move remains unclear. Iza has made it evident that he does not intend to “endorse” any candidate outright, a major blow to González’s hopes of securing Indigenous votes en masse. While Iza’s opposition to Noboa’s right-wing economic policies is expected, his distrust of Correa’s political influence has led him to publicly reject being treated as a pawn in González’s campaign.
Pachakutik’s stance matters because Indigenous voters played a critical role in the 2021 election, when many of them chose to nullify their votes rather than support Correa’s candidate or right-wing candidate Guillermo Lasso. A similar trend in this election could disproportionately hurt González, making Noboa’s path to victory smoother.
The potential for a high null vote percentage or a fragmented Indigenous vote could tip the scales in favor of Noboa, even if González remains the preferred alternative for most left-wing voters.
There will be a second-round rematch this upcoming April 13 between Incumbent Daniel Noboa and Luiza Gonzalez. (Photo:Diana Salazar for GK)
With the runoff set for April 13, both candidates face significant challenges. Noboa must reframe his campaign to counteract the perception of underperformance and convince voters that his governance, despite setbacks, is the more stable path forward. Meanwhile, González needs to contain the fallout of Correa’s dispute with Iza and broaden her appeal beyond Correísmo’s traditional base.
The election will ultimately be decided by swing voters, Indigenous communities, and abstention rates. While González appears to have the edge in coalition-building, the fractures within the left could weaken her path to victory. Noboa, on the other hand, cannot afford to rely solely on his first-round numbers, he must aggressively court undecided voters who remain skeptical of both candidates.
Ecuador’s future remains uncertain. But one thing is clear: this is no longer just a race between two candidates, but a test of Ecuador’s fragile political alliances and the enduring influence of Rafael Correa.