Wildfires in California and Portugal Signal Intensifying “Climate Whiplash”

Large clouds of smoke replacing forests in the Park fire, California’s third largest wildfire in history. Photo: Noah Berger / Associated Press

This month, southern California and northern Portugal grappled with some of the largest and most damaging wildfires in their respective regions. The Park fire in California, which started on June 24, 2024, is now 99 percent contained, but at its peak, it became the third-largest wildfire in the state’s history. Meanwhile, Portugal’s Prime Minister Luís Montenegro has declared a state of calamity.

As of Sept. 19, 2024, significant progress had been made in containing the three major wildfires in southern California: 41 percent containment for the Bridge wildfire, 51 percent for the Airport wildfire, and 39 percent for the Line wildfire. Meanwhile, the last massive fire faced by Portugal occurred in 2017, taking the lives of 120 people. Within the first week of the current disaster, authorities confirmed seven deaths. 

Both southern California and northern Portugal lie in hotspots for “climate whiplash” — a phenomenon characterized by alternating periods of intensified precipitation and drought resulting from increased evaporation from a warmer climate, as well as the melting of ice and water flow into the Northern Atlantic. California’s recent excessively wet years in 2023 and early 2024 led to the proliferation of flammable shrubs and grasses, creating conditions for wildfires that have affected an extensive 429,602 acres.  Given these conditions, the occurrence of intense wildfires this year was not unexpected, as they align with the regions identified as hotspots by scientists.

“We added more fuel for the fire, and then we kiln-dried it, essentially with that record breaking heat,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California Los Angeles.

The impact of climate whiplash extends beyond California and Portugal, affecting regions such as Southeast Africa, West Australia, and the Mediterranean. These areas are also at high risk of exacerbating global climate change as the smoke from wildfires acts as greenhouse gasses, intensifying the surrounding regions' heat. 

A comparison of “moisture budget changes” over regions identified as climate whiplash hotspots. Photo: Environmental Research Letters

Zimbabwe is among the most vulnerable countries in the climate hotspots, ranking 171 internationally in its vulnerability to climate change. The region faces the risk of both environmental and economic collapse due to climate whiplash, as its population works in climate sensitive farmlands. The climate shift led to reduced rainfall last October and intensified rainfall this January and March. However, these indigenous farmers contribute the least to greenhouse emissions. Therefore, international cooperation is crucial not only for states vulnerable to climate change but also for mitigating natural disasters for all.

In a policy brief addressing wildfires, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) emphasized the urgent need for international cooperation in curbing wildfires, citing the transboundary impacts of large-scale wildfires and the varying capacities of countries to address them. The brief also underscored the link between wildfire mitigation and the achievement of Global Forest Goals (GSGs) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

For instance, The Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC)  is a prominent international organization recommended by the UN.  It facilitates the connection of regional fireland networks and the collection of forest fire statistics and also hosts international conferences to disseminate updated policies on fire management. The upcoming conference, "Landscape Fire Management in the Western Balkans," will be held from September 17 to 20, 2024.

Portugal is receiving support in tackling its climate crisis through water-dumping planes provided by EU members France, Italy, Spain, and Morocco. This assistance, along with the support of the EU, UN, and the GFMC, underscores the crucial role of international cooperation in safeguarding our planet and economies.