Honduras Braces for Demographic Shift: Flacso Study Forecasts Generation Gap by 2035
Dr. Rolando Sierra Fonseca, Director of FLACSO Honduras, being awarded with the "José Cecilio del Valle" National Science Prize, in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, November 22, 2021. Image Source: Flacso
Doctor Rolando Fonseca, director of the Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales Honduras (FLASCO) recently published a paper on immigration trends in Honduras that suggested that the country will not have enough young people to replace the older generations by 2035.
According to Fonseca, migratory tendencies have been growing among teenagers and young adults. Fonseca’s study states that approximately 100,000 Hondurans are working in other countries, the majority of whom possess high levels of technical training. These skilled Hondurans usually migrate to countries like the United States, Spain, and Canada, where they have more professional opportunities.
Currently, most Honduran migrants reside in the United States. According to the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), Honduras has been one of the main exporters of migrants to the US, as compared to other Central American nations. Honduran migrants also have the highest population growth rate in the United States, with an estimated increase of 47 percent between the years 2010 and 2021. According to a UN study conducted in 2006, approximately 30 percent of college educated Hondurans immigrate to the US.
This phenomenon, more commonly known as ‘Brain Drain,’ is“the departure of educated or professional people from one country, economic sector, or field for another, usually better for pay or living conditions.”
FLASCO’s study includes data from The Global Economy, an agency that indexes brain drain and human flight in different countries on a scale from zero to ten. Honduras' score in the brain drain and human flight index is 6.7, which is significantly higher than the global average of 5.17. Honduras is ranked 41 out of a total of 200 countries in these scales, indicating that it is heavily affected by brain drain.
The Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), conducted a report on Honduran migration to the US in June. One of the principal reasons for migration is that Honduran citizens are starting to view migration as a “rite of passage.” The sentiment of many Honduran middle class citizens revolves around the view that “I have a future but this country does not.”
Honduran Youth. Image Source: UNOPS
The effects of the brain drain phenomenon in Honduras have heavily affected the country’s economy. Honduras is experiencing a loss of skilled individuals, and, as a consequence, a loss of socioeconomic power. The over supply of skilled labor in countries like the United States may also have negative effects for this group of migrants as a whole.
According to the UN report on brain drain in Latin America, “The main point is that the majority of the highly educated migrants who completed their education in their home countries end up with jobs that are not commensurate with their education levels.”
School systems in host countries may experience challenges in accommodating the educational needs of an increased number of students, especially if there are language barriers and varying levels of academic preparedness among migrant children.
These negative effects of higher education demand were recently reported in New York City schools. The surge in migration may strain the U.S. immigration system, leading to challenges in processing and managing the flow of incoming migrants. This can contribute to debates about immigration policies, border security, and the overall functioning of the system.