Finland, Sweden Consider NATO Membership

Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (left) and his Swedish counterpart, Ann Linde (right), bump fists as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (center) looks on after holding a joint press conference in Brussels earlier this year. John Thys: AFP

As it has become increasingly evident with each passing week, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced nearly every country in Western Europe to reevaluate its security doctrines. Now, Finland and Sweden, after decades of strategic neutrality - dubbed pejoratively by western critics as Finlandization - are considering membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). 

For those living in the Nordic states, Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine signifies a bellicostic Moscow that is willing, and able, to forcefully upend the security architecture that has existed in Europe for the past three decades. 

Forced to confront this reality, support across the left and right in the two Nordic countries has radically shifted towards NATO membership since the initial invasion in February. 

Three years ago, a slight yet persistent majority of Finns opposed accession to the western military alliance. Now, recent polling places Finnish support for NATO membership at 61%, with those opposing it at 16% and those unsure at 23%. In Sweden, public support for joining NATO has risen from 35% to 46% over the same time frame. 

These numbers are broadly spread across parties of either side of the political spectrum, however, the largest shift has come from the two nations’ left-wing social democratic parties as they have begun internal debates on the issue. 

“It’s a whole new chapter,” Peter Gustavsson, a left-leaning Swedish lawmaker-turned party newsletter editor, argued. “We need to reconsider how we position ourselves.” 

Given the urgency of the crisis in Ukraine, lawmakers and officials have been forced to drastically adjust, if not completely rewrite, decades of doctrinal geopolitical strategy in a matter of months.

Finnish PM Sanna Marin said on Saturday that the debate over NATO accession would have to be concluded by the end of the spring, with Swedish PM Magdalena Andersson concurring that similar conversations must be concluded by the end of May.

While support for NATO accession is growing within the two Nordic countries, what exactly would this do?

If Finland were to join the alliance, the collective border between NATO members and Russia would more than double, from nearly 760 miles to close to 1600 miles in length. This would bolster NATO’s strategic position in Scandinavia and the North Sea, whilst guaranteeing the  new members an attractive security guarantee through Article 5 of the NATO charter, which outlines that an attack on any member is an attack on all. 

A map of NATO’s European members (highlighted). Graphic: NATO

While Finland is likely closer to joining the alliance than Sweden, the latter would likely follow suit if the former were to join, given their shared historical and geopolitical experience.

Likewise, NATO members have received the prospect of increased Scandinavian membership warmly. 

In a briefing Tuesday, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith commented, “I think from the U.S. perspective, we would welcome these two members. We find that they already bring tremendous value to the Alliance.” She later added that other “NATO allies would be generally enthusiastic” to the concept.

Of course, as the international crisis in Ukraine demonstrates, joining NATO is no simple process. 

If either country were to initiate talks to join the alliance, there would be a significant period of time between their application and their ultimate acceptance. During this period, the two nations, particularly Finland, could be subject to various forms of Russian retaliation whilst not yet enjoying the full protection of NATO membership.

This reality will influence how lawmakers in the two countries move forward. While NATO membership certainly seems attractive to many who have yet to obtain it, one misstep - particularly when sharing a border with Russia - could spell calamity for Finland or Sweden.