A Joint Opposition Ticket May Upend the Taiwanese Elections
The two opposition parties and their candidates displaying support and allyship. Photo: Ann Wang/AlJazeera
On Nov. 15, Taiwan’s two main opposition parties in the 2024 presidential election agreed to a joint presidential ticket that may have serious implications for the outcome of the elections and the trajectory of Taiwan. The landmark election will take place on Jan. 13, 2024, and may alter Taiwanese independence for decades to come.
The agreement features Ko Wen-je, a former surgeon who is the founder of and candidate for the centrist independent Taiwan People’s Party, and Hou Yu-ih, a former police chief, mayor of New Taipei, and candidate for the Kuomintang. With 33% support, the frontrunner in the presidential race is currently Lai Cing-te, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party and the existing vice president of Taiwan. If all stays the same, Lai is projected to win because of the divided support of his opposition. However, Ko and Hou are polling at 24% and 22% respectively, and thus a combined ticket would provide a credible threat to Lai. According to a political science professor at National Taiwan University, Wang Yeh-lih, “A successful opposition alliance — no matter who is running as president — means it’s likely cross-strait tensions will improve as the opposition has more than a 50% chance of beating the DPP’s Lai.” Thus, this joint ticket seriously endangers the current government and Lai.
The parties agreed to decide on the ticket through independent polling experts and a mixture of external and internal party polls in order to have the dynamic most likely to succeed. However, while they were supposed to unveil an official candidate on Saturday, November 18, they instead announced that further negotiations are needed due to disagreements on how to use said polling data. In order to officially run as a joint ticket, they must announce and register by Nov. 24, and thus are running short on time to come to an agreement. Nevertheless, the parties seem determined to work together, as Ko stated, “I still think it is necessary for the main opposition parties to ally. We will think of a way to find the strongest ticket to win the election. This should be our goal.”
The current Taiwanese government continuously fights for complete independence. Photo: REUTERS/Ann Wang
While a combined ticket roils the political landscape in Taiwan, a successful political upset over Lai and the DPP may also cause international turmoil. Taiwan has been front and center to the simmering tensions between China and the United States. The DPP, the party in power at the moment, is against rejoining China and has major support from President Biden and the United States. Both the Ko and Hou’s political parties have vowed to restart talks with China, while Lai has been labeled a separatist by Beijing.
China has criticized the current Taiwanese government, including Lai, endlessly, and even gone as far to preemptively place the blame on them if war breaks out. If the opposition parties manage a successful joint ticket and gain power, a more China-friendly government will have an immense impact on geopolitical dynamics. On one hand, it might lower the risk of China-US conflict since Taiwan’s government will be receptive to China’s demands and negotiations, however in a much more impactful sense it might lead to the end of Taiwanese independence. Whether Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party can agree on a joint ticket will cause changes far beyond the January election.