[OP-ED] Malaysia's Snap Elections: Bellwether or Cure-all?
Malaysians will go to the polls on Nov. 19 after years of political upheaval
Photo: : Vincent Thian/AP Photo
Amid a worsening monsoon season and anticipated flooding, Malaysia is preparing to head to the polls. The country’s election committee announced late October that the next elections will be held on Nov. 19, following Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s dissolution of parliament on Oct. 10. The vote was declared to put an end to years of political turmoil, but skeptics think the likelihood of that is low. How did we get here? Who are the players? And are these elections a signal of worsening instability, or are they the solution Prime Minister Yaakob so desperately needs?
Though politics in Malaysia has been fraught since the 1980s, the situation reached a head during the 1MDB scandal. Between 2012 and 2013, Goldman Sachs helped the Malaysian government establish the 1Malaysia DeveloPrime Ministerent Berhad (1MDB), a sovereign wealth fund worth $6.5 billion meant to finance public develoPrime Ministerent projects. In reality, more than $4 billion was stolen from it, lining the pockets of both the Goldman bankers and then Prime Minister Najib Razak. When the issue came to light in 2018, former Prime Minister Razak fell from grace, losing the elections held that year. In 2020 he was found guilty of breach of trust and abuse of power, and was handed a 12-year prison sentence.
In his absence, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad stepped in, leading his party Pakatan Harapan (PH, or “alliance of hope”) to a stunning victory in the 2018 elections and toppling the coalition that had ruled Malaysia for the last 60 years. Mahathir was once prime minister from 1981 to 2003, as leader of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the very party he defeated in 2018. He assumed office at 92, the oldest leader of any country.
Despite the winds of change that PH seemed to bring to the nation’s politics, their success did not last for long. When the common enemy of UMNO was removed, divisions over leadership, racial politics and reform began splitting the coalition. Mahathir resigned from the post in Feb. 2020 following confrontation with the top leadership of PH. He was appointed interim prime minister the week after, and King Al-Sultan Abdullah named Muhyiddin Yassin his successor.
From the beginning, former Prime Minister Muhyiddin’s leadership was beset on all sides by trouble. Just two months into his premiership, Mahathir raised a no confidence vote against him which was delayed due to the pandemic, while opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim led a petition backed by 120 lawmakers to oust Muhyiddin. In July 2021, Muhyiddin’s closest ally UMNO withdrew their support for him for the next elections. On Aug. 16, 2021, Muhyiddin resigned as a deeply unpopular leader, and his 17 months in office makes him the shortest-serving prime minister in Malaysian history. The king appointed Ismail Sabri Yaakob from UMNO as Muhyiddin’s successor, the third in just as many years.
This leads us to the November elections, the first since the slew of political instability prompted by the 2018 elections. Malaysia currently is a parliamentary democracy with “first past the post,” meaning that the party or coalition with the simple majority of seats in the Dewan Rakyat (its lower house of parliament) - 112 out of 222 - will form the government. Often, this means a coalition between different parties is necessary to claim the most seats and hold onto power. Prime Minister Ismail claims that elections will allow the consolidation of power to put an end to years of instability. Significantly, Malaysia just lowered the minimum voting age to 18 years from 21, resulting in an additional five million people voting for the first time. The key coalitions vying for power are the Barisan Nasional headed by UMNO, Pakatan Harapan, and the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS).
With constantly shifting alliances and a complex political system of favors, the current election could be anyone’s game. UMNO just dropped several key allies of Prime Minister Ismail in what seems to be an emerging power struggle, while early opinion polls show that no party has a strong majority and opposition parties may have to ally to win. As the country emerges from a difficult pandemic, economic growth and rising cost of living dominates the political conversation, together with promises of stability and the end of three years of in-fighting.
Barisan Nasional are counting on Prime Minister Ismail’s announced but unpassed budget promises, while opposition leader Anwar brings decades of political experience to the table. To make matters worse, the country is in the middle of a monsoon season, expected to bring devastating floods to all parts of the country and disrupt voting. Opposition lawmakers point to the expected low turnout as political opportunism to swing the election in UMNO’s favor.
With all sides looking unstable as Malaysia heads to the polls, it is unclear if any party will achieve the decisive victory that PH scored in the last elections. What seems more likely is a drawing out of the political turmoil, with the very real possibility of a hung parliament where no party can attain a simple majority. Unlike the political panacea that Prime Minister Ismail is promising, unless one party can attain a decisive majority in the parliament, the constantly changing factions and alliances means the stability of the Malaysian political system will always be in question. What seems more likely is that this election will be just another political event in Malaysia’s quest for political peace.