US Approval of Long-Range Missiles for Ukraine and Rising Tensions with Russia

North Korean troops in Russia preparing for future combat. Source: The Financial Brand

On Nov. 17, in the final months of the Biden administration, the United States made a historic decision to authorize the Ukrainian military to use long-range missiles, including the American-made ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems). The ATACMS, with a range of up to 300 kilometers (186 miles), is capable of striking key Russian military infrastructure, including command centers, air defense systems, and ammunition depots deep behind the front lines. Similarly, the Storm Shadow, a long-range cruise missile provided by the UK, is designed for precision strikes against fortified positions. 

In addition to the US and the UK, France has also authorized the use of longer-range missile systems to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian forces. French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that France would provide Ukraine with the necessary support, including the green light for the use of French-made missiles like the SCALP, which is similar to the British Storm Shadow.

With that, on Nov. 20, Ukraine launched its first strike with Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory targeting a command post in the Marino area of the Kursk region. The strike hit a facility associated with the Russian Presidential Administration, which has been used as a military command post. The attack reportedly killed several high-ranking officers and wounded many others, including North Korean soldiers.

The decision by the US to make such a shift in its policy appears to be driven by a combination of factors related to both military strategy and external pressures. One key element is the growing involvement of North Korean troops and supplies in Russia's war effort. Intelligence and media have indicated that as many as 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed to bolster Russian forces, particularly in the Kursk region where Ukraine advanced into Russian territory. 

The fragments of the Oreshnik ballistic missile launched at Dnipro. Source: The Seattle Times

In the broader context of this precedent, North Korea has violated UN sanctions by receiving over one million barrels of oil from Russia since March 2024. These oil shipments have been documented using satellite imagery, which shows that North Korean tankers have made repeated visits to Russia’s Far Eastern ports, particularly Vostochny. The shipments exceed the UN-imposed cap of 500,000 barrels per year, which was set to limit North Korea’s access to resources needed for its military and nuclear programs. The deliveries are seen as part of the growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, with Russia reportedly compensating North Korea with oil for weapons and artillery supplies to support its war in Ukraine​. This increased cooperation has heightened concerns that Russia may attempt a major counteroffensive, prompting the West to reevaluate its stance onthe use of long-range missiles. 

In response to the change in this policy, Russia has issued a series of increasingly bellicose warnings. Russian President Vladimir Putin and other high-ranking officials have stated that any use of such weapons by Ukraine will be considered a serious escalation, and Moscow is prepared to retaliate. The rhetoric has included implicit threats of a wider war and the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons should Ukrainian forces target Russian territory with American or British long-range missiles. Notably, in the wake of these developments, Russia’s nuclear doctrine has also evolved. In October 2024, the Kremlin formally updated its nuclear policy, shifting from a stance of "nuclear deterrence" to a more aggressive posture known as "escalate to de-escalate." This doctrine allows for the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons in the event of an existential threat to Russia, signaling that Moscow may be willing to use nuclear weapons in the event of a severe military setback, even in a regional conflict like the one in Ukraine.

Simultaneously, Russia has initiated a more aggressive campaign of missile strikes across Ukraine, including on Nov. 20, when Russian forces launched a ballistic missile attack on the city of Dnipro. This marked the first time in the conflict that Russia used such technology, making it a noteworthy escalation. Moreover, on Nov. 22, Vladimir Putin said that Russia would keep testing its new Oreshnik hypersonic missile in combat and had a stock ready for use. The ability of those missiles to carry nuclear warheads is another indication of the Russian nuclear policy stance shift, with the use of ballistic missiles for "escalation to de-escalate".