The Global Implications of the 2024 US Election
Vice President Kamala Harris at a Pennsylvania campaign rally on Nov. 4, 2024. (Photo: Susan Walsh/AP Photo)
As the United States’ 2024 election cycle ends, the international community braces for its potential outcomes. The implications extend beyond domestic policy, potentially shaping the resolution of conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, and Taiwan and China.
Tensions between Iran and the United States have intensified as the Gaza conflict continues. Recent Israeli strikes on Iran and its allies have escalated hostilities, and Arab and Iranian officials have indicated plans for a retaliatory strike involving more powerful weapons than previously used. If Kamala Harris is elected president, her administration would likely maintain the status quo that has prevailed since the war began in October 2023. Opinions are divided: some believe the Biden-Harris administration has insufficiently addressed the conflict, while others commend its support for Israel, a US ally. In contrast, a Trump presidency might provide Israel with even greater latitude. Former President Donald Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to” regarding the war.
The outcome of the US election could also shape the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A Harris presidency would likely maintain the United States’ support for Ukraine. Harris stated that “I will continue to stand with Ukraine” and “will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war.” Since the war’s outset, many have noted that Ukraine’s fate hinges on US support. However, even with a Harris victory, a Republican-controlled Congress could limit the aid pledged by the Democratic presidential nominee. Conversely, at a recent rally, Trump told supporters, “I’ll get out. We gotta get out.” If Trump wins this election, an end to US involvement in this conflict appears likely.
Former US President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Oct. 20, 2024. (Photo: Susan Walsh/AP Photo)
The outcomes of these existing conflicts are not the only issues tied to the result of the 2024 election. As tensions rise between Taiwan and China, Taiwan’s future may also depend on the result of this election. A second Trump presidency would likely signal a return to isolationist policies, similar to those from 2016 to 2020. For Taiwan, Trump’s isolationism could increase the risk of a Chinese invasion. In an interview in July 2024, Trump claimed that Taiwan should pay the US for its defense, indicating his stance on a potential Taiwan-China conflict. A Harris presidency would likely demonstrate greater commitment to defending Taiwan’s self-determination and be more inclined to check China’s power.
While this election may shape many key domestic issues such as abortion rights, the economy, and immigration, it also has the potential to influence a range of international conflicts. The outcome could determine the future of the United States’ relationships with foreign nations and whether the US continues its intervention and involvement or shifts to an isolationist policy. It all depends on who Americans elect as the 47th president.
Editor’s Note: This article was written prior to the announcement of the 2024 U.S. presidential election results.