UK Defense Spending and Strategic Shifts in the Face of Rising Global Threats and a New Trump Administration

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, right, Britain's Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, left, and Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak look at weapons at the Warsaw Armored Brigade in Warsaw, Poland, April 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant, Pool)

The United Kingdom’s (UK) defense spending and international security commitments are attracting much attention as the government balances global threats and budget conflicts. In recent months, increased defense commitments – particularly the “Trinity House Agreement” with Germany on Oct. 23 to counteract Russia as a growing threat – have highlighted the defense priorities under Former Prime Minister (PM) Rishi Sunak, such as increasing defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2030. This decision reflects the UK’s commitment to meet NATO’s target and respond to mounting security concerns in Europe, coming as NATO allies call for higher defense allocations amid Russia’s intensified military activities near European borders. 

However, the UK’s current defense mission, specifically increased defense spending, has brought challenges. Within the domestic sector, Former Prime Minister Sunak faced growing pressure to prioritize spending on public services which has led to criticism from civil service unions and advocates concerned about a “funding crisis” affecting the workforce. Former PM Sunak has defended the budget allocation by emphasizing that it is the “right thing to do for the country.” In response, unions have argued against the fact that Sunak’s plan involves cutting 70,000 civil service jobs out of the existing 500,000, leaving tens of thousands without stable jobs.

President-elect Donald Trump speaks at a meeting of the House GOP conference, Nov. 13, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

With President Donald Trump’s recent electoral victory in the United States on Nov. 6, 2024, there is more cause to reevaluate defense plans. Admiral Lord West, a former chief of the United Kingdom naval staff who served as the Labour Party’s security minister under Gordon Brown, stated that Trump’s reelection created a chance for Britain to step up on defense amid the incoming US president’s long criticism toward NATO. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now being urged to consider an emergency cash investment into defense to accelerate Britain’s plan to reach £87 billion a year in 2030 for its military capabilities before Trump’s return to the White House, unveiling plans to carry on Former PM Sunak’s plan to increase defense spending to 2.5%, or even 3%, of GDP. As of now, the UK spends around 2.3% of GDP on defense, exceeding NATO’s 2% target. Raising it to 2.5% would move the UK from its current sixth place in NATO’s spending ranking up to fourth place, surpassing India.

With Trump in office, Europe can no longer rely on the U.S. for its defense and security. Trump has made it clear that he would not come to the rescue of allies who do not invest enough in their military in the case of Russian aggression. This could vastly affect the European political field because it would force European governments to work more closely together and make individual decisions on their defense. Conversely, European capitals might pursue relations to potentially win favor with the Trump administration, aiming to keep the United States engaged in their security. This could include ramping up purchases of U.S.-made weapons, even as the European Commission encourages European countries to prioritize local defense spending.