German Elections Cast Poor Forecast for Kyiv
A campaign poster for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in the federal state of Hesse, outside of Frankfurt am Main, Germany. The poster reads ‘different politics is possible’. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)
Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the German government–ruled by a coalition between the social democratic SPD, the liberal FDP, and the environmentalist GRÜNEN–has provided immense support to the forces in Kyiv. Beyond material support, which has included armored fighting vehicles, Germany has taken in over 1.1 million Ukrainian refugees in under two years. It is within this context, among other problems facing the central government in Berlin, that elections took place at the state level in both Bavaria and Hesse. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party took second and third place, respectively, in these elections: an outcome that bodes poorly for Ukrainians in the future.
In the run-up to the election, the public media network Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen (ZDF), which regularly polls for public opinion on politics and world affairs, showed that 41% of respondents thought that Ukraine should accept territorial concessions to Moscow, should it mean an end to the conflict. This reflects a position taken, among others, by the far-right in Germany, represented politically by the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Over the decade that they have existed, the AfD has propagated far-right populist politics, including (but certainly not limited to) anti-immigrant sentiment in Germany. They view migrants as damaging to Germany’s tradition and culture and draining on Germany’s strong economy.
Beyond supporting anti-immigrant policy reforms, the AfD has been known to be Russophilic, a pattern that has worried some in the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), which is responsible for domestic intelligence. Through this election, the AfD has proven that more Germans than ever (since 1990) are willing to vote for the far-right; since Bavaria’s and Hesse’s last elections in 2018, the AfD has made significant gains. Official election results showed that the AfD gained the second-most number of votes in Hesse and the third-most in Bavaria, suggesting that the far-right is beginning to make headway amidst troubles east of the country.
Chief whip for the AfD in the Bundestag, Bernd Baumann, suggested a “changing wind” in Germany, “from left to right,” after the results were announced. Though the AfD has risen to second place in national polling, according to the CDU/CSU–the party that gained a plurality of the votes in both states–the far-right will not play a role in state governments, essentially serving as a rebuke of right-wing populism from moderate conservatives. Even so, senior legislator Jens Spahn from the center-right CDU noted that Germans had made clear their desires for a different political agenda, including about migration policy.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba at a news conference on Sept. 11, 2022. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
This reflects a poor forecast for both the government in Ukraine and recent migrants to Germany. Amidst a slow offensive this summer, Kyiv has relied heavily on support from the West–and especially from Germany, which is seen by Ukraine as a bastion of the European Union. While Germany has been a friendly place for migrants to seek asylum since the outbreak of armed conflict in Ukraine, the duration of the conflict combined with a poor offensive and ever-increasing numbers of migrants have swayed opinion against further costly support, a publicly held position not shared by Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock (GRÜNEN), who has continued to rally support for Ukraine amidst the election.
Should trends continue, the next federal elections in 2025 could see a replacement of the sitting center-left coalition with a more right-leaning one. Though the center-right powerhouse CDU/CSU has vowed not to work with the AfD, especially on a national scale, opinion polling shows Germans' disillusionment with the conflict in Ukraine and stress over ‘kitchen table’ (economic) issues–ones that large-scale material support for Kyiv adds pressure to. This could forecast a reduction in support for Ukraine should the conflict fail to be resolved by 2025, a continuation of the trend most recently displayed by the elections in Slovakia, where the center-left and Russophilic party SMER won. For Ukrainians in Germany and at home, this election cycle has begun to spell tribulation.