El Salvador's Political Turmoil: Bukele's Re-election Bid Amid Constitutional Controversy and Electoral Rule Shifts

El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele speaks during a ceremony to lay the first stone of a new public hospital, in San Salvador, El Salvador June 15, 2023. Photo: AP Photography/Getty Images

On Oct. 26, incumbent Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele announced his candidacy for next year's upcoming presidential election. Bukele's announcement has stirred controversy, with many questioning the constitutionality of his potential reelection. Critics had already expressed concerns in July when his party, Nuevos Ideas, nominated him for the race. 

El Salvador's Constitution, adopted in 1983, originally prohibited presidential reelections. Nonetheless, Bukele's supporters defend that his candidacy is legitimate, according to the Constitution's recent amendment in 2021, which overturned the original limitations on reelection. 

The amendment faced widespread criticism as a result of  the circumstances surrounding its passage. The Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court, predominantly made up of members aligned with President Bukele's Nuevos Ideas party, assumed control by ousting the incumbent judges and installing individuals loyal to their cause. This newly constituted chamber then ruled in favor of re-election and instructed the electoral court to ratify the amendment.

The passing of this amendment was highly condemned by human rights groups, international organizations, and the U.S. government. Ned Price, senior advisor to the U.S. Secretary of State, asserted in a statement: "This decline in democratic governance damages the relationship that the United States strives to maintain with the government of El Salvador and further erodes El Salvador's international image as a democratic and trustworthy partner in the region."

Constitutional lawyers, such as Abraham Abrego, also denounced the ruling, reaffirming its illegality. Abrego stated, "Immediate reelection is expressly prohibited by six constitutional articles, as well as the spirit of the 1983 Constitution, which established a five-year presidential term without the possibility of immediate reelection."

Despite the controversy surrounding his candidacy, Bukele maintains strong support. A poll conducted by the Center for Citizen Studies at Francisco Gavidia University revealed that 70% of respondents continue to support Bukele's Nuevos Ideas party. The closest competitor is estimated to have only about four percent of votes at this point.

Bukele, along with his Vice President, Felix Ulloa, registered as candidates just before the midnight deadline. Bukele's registration drew large crowds of supporters outside the electoral offices, who chanted, "Five more, five more!" in reference to the presidential term's duration. Bukele's popularity is attributed to his extensive crackdown on gang violence, with estimates of over 75,000 gang members arrested during his presidency.

A soldier checks the identifications of youth on the main street of La Campanera neighborhood in Soyapango, El Salvador, Sunday, March, 5, 2023. Photo: AP Photography/ Salvador Melendez

Bukele's government recently introduced new rules for voting abroad, allowing Salvadorans overseas to vote in Legislative Assembly elections, and offering online voting methods. Salvadorans living abroad have until Nov. 5th to register to vote. These changes have raised concerns about potential electoral fraud and manipulation, with fears that they could be exploited to influence local elections, further consolidating power in favor of the ruling party.

Despite the criticisms, Bukele remains resolute in his decisions, stating, "They are not the ones who will decide, but the Salvadoran people. The Salvadoran people will decide if they want to continue building this new El Salvador, or if they want to return to that country that was known for gangs and death."

The question of the amendment's legality is central to national and international discussions. The outcome of these elections will not only shape El Salvador's political landscape, but also serve as a test of its commitment to democracy and the rule of law. El Salvador is currently classified by the intergovernmental group Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) as experiencing rapid declines in democracy. If Bukele's re-election is perceived as a violation of constitutional norms, it could strain El Salvador's relationships within the region, potentially isolating the country from its Latin American neighbors.