Panel on Developments in the Chinese Military
China’s 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, an annual display of China’s military prowess and diplomacy with allied powers, with small delegations from Western powers and larger delegations from countries such as Russia making appearances. Beijing, Oct. 29, 2023. Photo: Reuters
Key Points
The panel hosted by the Center for Strategic & International Studies discussed the statements made from the aforementioned military forum, as well as recent military developments in China’s People’s Liberation Army, otherwise known as the PLA, as per a recent report released by the United States Secretary of Defense.
Dr. Bonny Lin, Director of the China Power Project and a senior fellow for Asian Security at CSIS. interviewed three experts on the subject: Dr. Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow at the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University; Dr. Sheng Ming-Shih, a research fellow and acting deputy Chief Executive Officer at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan; and Mr. Roderick Lee, a research director at the Air University’s China Aerospace Institute.
Questions were asked about recent breakdowns on developments within the Chinese military, implications this has overseas, as well as what we can gain from the knowledge in terms of our perceptions of the PLA.
Summary
On October 30, 2023, the CSIS hosted a panel discussion and Q&A on developments within the Chinese military, hosting three experts on the topic to discuss and answer questions proposed by the panel host. Dr. Lin opened with a question inquiring “What do the three panelists view as the most significant developments from the last year, as well which parts of the military you think it is most centered within?” Dr. Wuthrow took the lead in answering this question, stating that his view of the greatest developments within the Chinese military in the better part of the year is a better integration of civilian roles and participation into the PLA, as well as the creation of new nuclear projects, listing the updated warhead projections to have risen to about 1,000 by 2030, to now expected to exceed this number by the date. Additionally, Dr. Wuthrow noted the particular importance of personnel development in the PLA, and the presence of new weaknesses within the forces, especially within the leadership and recruitment areas.
Dr. Lin focused on Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, and where China fits into the equation. He stated that China’s current stance on Russian and Western foreign has led to significant change-ups within its military’s chain of command, and its application of intelligence on Taiwan. Dr. Meng-Shih cited it as an attempt to balance the relationship between Russia, Europe, and the United States, and connected it to the uptick in coercive activities in the Taiwan strait, specifically in August 2022, following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island.
The core focuses of the conversation included the developed capabilities of the PLA, in comparison to past years, which was recorded in a recently released report from the Department of Defense. Dr. Wuthrow touched on this topic, specifically focusing on the increase in weapons and ships, as well as the development of items such as the Fujian Air Carrier, and a diversification of their nuclear arsenal. Additionally, there was a focus on the removal of top generals from the PLA Rocket Force, as well as the unsubstantiated reporting of an accident involving a nuclear-powered submarine under the PLA Navy, and how these events could have implications on internal and external relations with China’s primary military force.
Former Speaker of the House Representative Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, Taiwan on August 3, 2023, pictured here next to the Taiwanese President, President Tsai Ing-wen. Photo: Boston University
Panelists discussed China’s recent maritime recklessness, especially in having their naval fleet in the South China Sea in areas that Taiwan has marked as its territory. This has heightened already extreme tensions between the two, and brought in Western opinion and involvement in the matter – a recent example being the incredibly controversial visit of Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to the island nation, which saw huge backlash from both China and certain voices in the West.
Another topic of note which was mentioned was the recent Xiangshan Forum, held recently in Beijing, which saw incendiary rhetoric delivered from the Chinese speaker in regards to Taiwan. However, the speaker ended their speech with a possible hope for calm in U.S.-China relations, opening the door to what Dr. Lee saw as an important development in the face of the future of the relationship.
Overall, the three speakers saw recent developments as part of the greater puzzle of Chinese foreign policy and interaction with its Western counterparts, and what they can mean for already sour relations.
This report was compiled by Nazea Kamal on November 5, 2023, and edited by Alexis Tretschok.