The Votes Are In: Brazilian Elections Reveal a Polarized Country with an Uncertain Fate
Candidates Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro will be facing each other in a runoff election at the end of the month. Source: AP Photo/Eraldo Peres
On Sunday, Oct. 2, Brazil held its first round of presidential and congressional elections. As predicted by the polls, Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva, the left-wing ex-president of the Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores—PT), and Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing incumbent of the Liberal Party (Partido Liberal—PL), were by far the most favored presidential candidates in this first round. With 99.98 percent of the votes counted by Sunday evening, the ballots showed Lula came in first place with 48.4 percent of the electorate, followed by Bolsonaro with 43.2 percent. The third candidate in the competition did not manage to get even 5 percent of the votes.
The electoral system in the country functions on a two-round basis: if no single candidate, running for any office, wins a majority of 50 percent of the votes, the two most popular candidates proceed to a runoff election. This year, the runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro will be held on Oct. 30.
While Lula beat Bolsonaro in the first round of the presidential election, Bolsonaro's party boasted the most representatives elected to both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. The Liberal Party's impressive victory in Congress and Bolsonaro's surprising performance on the ballots appeared to give momentum to the extreme right again, with some journalists claiming that this "Bolsonarist" ascension in Congress will be the end of the moderate right in Brazil.
Without a doubt, the results of the first round of elections reveal an extremely divided and polarized nation. With many people casting votes in opposition to a certain candidate rather than in favor of one, the elections show that Brazilian leadership and politics are in crisis. If Lula wins on Oct. 30, he will face strong opposition from PL representatives in Congress, which may complicate the ratification of legislation and the efficacy of his government.
Generally speaking, Lula has support mainly from Northern and Northeastern states, which have higher rates of poverty. Bolsonaro's support is concentrated in wealthier areas of the country like Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and the South. Source: Agence France-Presse/Tatiana Magarinos
Lula's performance proved pre-election polls to be misleading, as many had suggested he was technically guaranteed victory with a majority of votes. In four weeks, the two will face each other in the final runoff, a decisive moment in Brazilian history.
The international community seems to resonate with the gloomy uncertainty that is cast over the future of Brazil, the world's fourth largest democracy. Both candidates have divergent approaches to international affairs, making it difficult to predict what type of relationship other countries will foster with Brazil in the next four years.
If elected, Bolsonaro is likely to continue pursuing his established foreign policy with a focus on building a business-friendly, open-market economy. However, Latin America's newly shifted political tendency towards left-leaning leadership could pose some challenges for Bolsonaro to effect regional collaboration.
Lula, on the other hand, is likely to prioritize cooperation with Global South economies, especially with those within Latin America. He has already voiced an interest in retaking South American leadership, which he claimed in the 2000s during his time in office. This may be pivotal for countries like Argentina, which has been struggling to recover from recent recessions.
On a global scale, environmentalists argue this election to be the most important in defining the fate of the Amazon, and with it, that of climate change. Bolsonaro's government was characterized by massive deforestation, wildfires, and violent assaults on indigenous people. In 2020, only one year after his election, deforestation increased by 74 percent, and scorched areas by 42 percent. Though Bolsonaro's campaign raises issues of sustainable development now, Lula's environmental policies seem to be more promising for the future of the rainforest. The latter has committed himself to reform environmental agencies and further protect native lands from illegal mining operations.
As the runoff between Bolsonaro and Lula approaches, the world turns its gaze to Brazil. The events that will take place in the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of politics in Latin America and across the globe.