Hamas-Israel War: Risks of Escalation and Impact on Lebanon
The image shows the scale of conflict within the Gaza Strip, as aggression and tensions between both sides continue to escalate since the initial Oct. 7 period. Image from CNN
Key Points:
The panel, hosted by the Wilson Center, brought together a group of experts to discuss the escalating regional conflict in the Gaza Strip and surrounding areas.
The conversation was centered around introducing a second front in the conflict, involving the Israeli-Lebanese border, and the potential effects of this development.
Discussed the current internal fragility of Lebanon, including its recent civil war and the militant group Hezbollah, and its particular vulnerability in the face of more conflict.
Panelists discussed whether world leaders were interested in Lebanese involvement, and the steps they see being taken going forward by both Lebanese and Western officials alike.
Summary
The initial attack launched on Israel on Oct. 7 has affected citizens greatly, involving the deaths of Palestinians and Israelis as well as the brutalization of the environment in both countries. Further escalation is a cause for concern for associations such as the UN and the international community. This difficult situation was discussed in the panel hosted by David Hale, former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs and the former US Ambassador to Pakistan, Lebanon, and Jordan.
The invited speakers include Mona Yacoubian, a Senior Advisor on Syria, the Middle East, and North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace, Randa Slim, a Senior Fellow and Director at the Middle East Institute, Edward M. Gabriel, President and CEO of the American Task Force on Lebanon, and Darrell Issa, California’s 48th district’s representative in Congress. Introductory remarks were given by the Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, Merissa Khurma. She noted that the Oct. 7 attack on Israel provoked US national security interests and foreign security interests in the Middle East. She noted that the conflict continues to involve international actors and neighboring regions.
To begin the discussion, moderator David Hale pointed out that the militant group known as Hezbollah, associated with the Loyalty to Resistant Bloc of the Lebanese Parliament, has ties and motivations that need to be monitored and assessed. Hale then opened up the panel for general commentary, starting with Gabriel, who began by saying that he believes Lebanon’s current priority is to avoid being drawn into the conflict unnecessarily, citing the aggression between Hezbollah and forces within Southern Israel as causes of immediate concern for the nation.
Gabriel cited Lebanon’s current fragility on the world stage, as tensions between the militant group and the Lebanese government have left the nation especially vulnerable in the face of an added external aggregator. Gabriel stated that Israel too extends a similar sentiment in regards to engaging in conflict with Lebanon. Israel has shown a hesitancy to open a new front given open deterrence from the Biden administration, one of its many supporters. Gabriel added that Lebanese involvement could be a catalyst for further intervention by Western states and other states within the Middle East, complicating the conflict to an extreme.
The focus shifts then to Mona Yacoubian, who, in adding to Gabriel’s point, mentioned that both Hezbollah and its backing from Iran have determined that opening a second front wouldn’t make sense for their cause. She explained that Lebanon is facing its political crisis today, and involvement in an external crisis would only cause more problems for Hezbollah and the government alike. Elaborating, she noted that there is a newly dangerous level of escalation in that region, dating back to before the initial Oct. 7 catalyzing event. Due to already present disturbance in the area there is potential for what she noted as “miscalculation” and “unintended escalation” that could lead to what she believes is a regional vacuum of conflict.
Parliamentary procedures have been taking place since Former President Michel Anoun vacated office, leaving the country with a presidential vacuum since late 2022. The country’s inability to restore the seat of the presidency, amid a financial crisis, has made it particularly vulnerable to external pressures. Photo: Crisis Center
The final speaker, Randa Slim, suggested that Hezbollah is not seeking to engage in a war, as Lebanon continues to face the repercussions since the Lebanon-Israel War in 2006. Slim noted that since the war had ended, fighting and civilian deaths near the border have still been observed, though not deemed an “official” conflict. Though both sides are increasing their border defense, they are avoiding direct attacks on one another, due to both borders having been weakened.
Further questions were then posed regarding what steps the panel sees Western nations might take in response to this conflict, and how Lebanese policy can be enacted as a deterrence of a major border conflict. The panel ends with a statement made by Congressman Darrell Isa, who explained that the most pressing issue currently is the expansion of the conflict into four to five other countries, beyond just Hezbollah, citing Syria as an example. Due to this, he stated that he sees no clear method of de-escalation, as the drawing in of a multitude of areas within the region complicates any clear process of maintaining stability within them.
He explained that this complication is a major concern surrounding the suffering of the Palestinian people, who he believes will receive the brunt of the consequences, as Iran-US relations pose the potential of souring as the conflict expands in this geographic sphere. He finished his point by questioning if there is still a possibility for a pathway towards the Palestinians and the Israelis alike having clear guidance in terms of coming to a sense of agreement.
The panelists all agreed on the common theme of the dangers of Lebanese involvement, as well as the potential consequences it could pose for stability within the Middle East. As the conflict continues to escalate as time goes on, the possibility of direct outside involvement, more so than already seen, becomes more threatening. Even if Lebanon doesn’t find itself involved in the future, the conflict expanding past borders threatens the region more with each passing day.
This report was compiled by Nazea Kamal on November 14, 2023, and edited by Alexis Tretschok.