Can Lula Reunite Brazil?

Lula managed to recruit supporters from diverse backgrounds. Photo: AP Photo/Nelson Antoine

After a tense month of campaigning in Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was elected President a third time with 50.9 percent of the votes. The extremely polarized context within which he will be assuming the presidency poses severe challenges for his goal to reunite the country. Just last week, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right candidate and incumbent president, went to the streets to demand a military coup d'état that would prevent Lula from stepping into office. The protestors blocked highways, burned public property, and called for intervention in front of military posts. Despite the protests, the allegiance of the military to the constitution and Bolsonaro's resentful yet defeated attitude makes it ever-clearer that Lula will indeed be assuming the presidency on Jan. 1, 2023.

That said, will Lula be able to unify such a polarized nation in the years to come? What do these elections reveal about the convoluted ways in which the nation is divided? Who are Lula’s supporters, and who are Bolsonaro’s?

Unlike countries like the United States, Brazil does not publicize demographic information about the electorate, which makes an analysis of endogenous sociocultural divisions difficult. Inferences about the impact of social identities on election results can only be based on statistical and demographic data predating the election. Understanding how these identities are connected to political discourse is key in unraveling the deep-rooted and complex ways Brazil is bisected. 

One of the most important factors to consider when examining the outcome of the elections is socioeconomic status. Lula won in every state of the Northeast, the poorest region of the country, while Bolsonaro won in four of the five richest states in Brazil, including Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. The socioeconomic divide is likely due to the difference between Bolsonaro's focus on open-market operations and Lula's more socialist framework. This divide is a symptom of brutal socioeconomic inequality—as the rich are eager to get richer, the poor continue desperate for help.

In Brazil, socioeconomic status is inextricably linked to racial identity. Though often promoting an image of a racial democracy, the Brazilian government and media conceal the structural racism that oppresses and disadvantages Afro-Brazilian communities. The Northeast, the region that guaranteed Lula's victory, is also the region with the largest Black and Pardo (mixed-race) populations. 11.3 percent of the population self-identifies as Black and 63.2 percent as Pardo. Meanwhile, the South and the Southeast, which predominantly supported Bolsonaro, are the states with the largest white populations. 

Datafolha, one of the most famous polling institutes in Brazil, researched the racial composition of the electorate after the first round of elections and found out that nearly 59 percent of Black voters supported Lula, compared to only 34 percent who supported Bolsonaro. According to a CNN article published in October, "the PT [Workers Party] candidate continues to have a significant advantage among Black and Pardo voters." Lula's popularity in these voter groups is closely connected to his social welfare programs. Research by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) showed that 75.2 percent of the poorest tenth of Brazil’s population is Black. 

Bolsonaro was still able to amass some support with Black Brazilians, despite his many racist commentaries and policies, due to his campaign focus on Christian values. Datafolha found that people of color comprised 59 percent of Evangelicals in Brazil. 

Clearly, many different identities were at play in the outcome of the elections: socioeconomic status, race, and religion, to name a few. A clear line can also be drawn between queer and heterosexual voters. A June poll of queer voters at the São Paulo Gay Pride Parade, the largest in the world, showed that 86 percent of LGBTQI+ voters supported Lula. Only 1.6 percent professed intention to vote for Bolsonaro. This is with no surprise after Bolsonaro’s many homophobic and transphobic commentaries made during his time in office. 

The pervasive homophobic discourse by Bolsonaro made queer people become strong supporters of Lula in 2022. Photo: AP Photo/Andre Penner

With all of these intricacies in mind, what does it truly mean to ask whether Lula can reunite Brazil? Considering the country’s legacies of colonialism, white supremacy, and homophobia, is it even appropriate to say Brazil was once united? The latter cannot feasibly be addressed in this essay, but it is worth contemplating nonetheless. The real challenges Lula will face in bringing together the nation are grounded in a long history of exclusion and violence that transcends the myopic context of the recent elections. Extreme political polarization is but a manifestation of deeper structural issues that have been suppressed and overlooked through the decades. 

In his campaign, Lula committed to decreasing the wealth gap, promoting the socioeconomic and political inclusion of marginalized people of color, and defending the rights and freedoms of queer people in Brazil. Since elected, has begun to restore previous social welfare programs he established, including the Bolsa Família, a financial aid program to help poor families enroll their children in school and get proper healthcare. Lula sustains that education is the key to breaking the cycle of poverty, especially for communities of color. However, these programs require large monetary investments and human capital. Lula's team has struggled to find ways to fund these campaign pledges, stirring criticism and skepticism about the effectiveness of his government in the future.

Making amendments and finding a common ground with Bolsonaro supporters will be another important step Lula will have to take in reunifying Brazil. After all, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party managed to win a relative majority in Congress this year. Lula will face strong opposition in the legislative branch, which may endanger the success of his programs if polarization is not tackled. 

Despite the distinct geopolitical and ideological ways in which the sociocultural divisions hereby described manifest in Brazil, polarized dynamics are unfortunately not unique to this country. Politicizing identities has become popular throughout the world as a useful technique to legitimize privilege and solidify social inequities. Furthermore, analyzing how social optics shape political discourse in each nation is fundamental in articulating routes for inclusion and development.