Moldova's 2024 Election: A Crossroads for European Integration
Moldova’s geostrategic location is between Ukraine and Romania, with autonomous regions of Gagauzia and Transnistria. Photo: International Crisis Group
On Sept. 24, the Moldovan Central Electoral Commission (CEC) released its list of approved candidates in anticipation of the upcoming presidential election, which notably omitted Igor Munteanu, one of the main political opponents of incumbent President Maia Sandu. While Munteanu submitted 17,357 signatures from voters, only 14,827 were recognized as valid — falling short of the legislative threshold of 15,000 valid signatures by only 173. Munteanu has criticized the decision, asserting that the CEC's refusal is rooted in political bias, with concerns raised about the integrity of the electoral process.
Munteanu announced he would file a lawsuit against the CEC after refusing to register him as a presidential candidate. Representing pro-Russian sentiments, Munteanu embodies the dichotomy of the political landscape in Moldova, as incumbent President Maia Sandu is a strong advocate for EU integration. Therefore, the stakes in the upcoming election extend far beyond national politics, with the future of its European Union membership bid hanging in the balance. A recent survey from the International Republican Institute (IRI) revealed that 63% of Moldovans support joining the EU, reflecting a strong desire for integration amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The primary challenger for incumbent President Maia Sandu will be former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo. He presents himself as a pro-European candidate, despite being backed by the Socialist Party, which has strong ties to Russia.
Recent polls indicate that Sandu maintains a significant lead over Stoianoglo. Recent surveys suggest Sandu is polling at around 35.5% among decided voters, while Stoianoglo trails behind considerably at approximately 9.9%.
Sandu and Stoianoglo, the two leading candidates in the election. Photo: Moldova 1
Trailing behind these two frontrunners in the race are several other candidates, including two former prime ministers, a former deputy prime minister, the former head of the pro-Russian Gagauzia region, and a well-known journalist.
In the context of the upcoming Moldovan elections, the regions of Gagauzia and Transnistria play crucial roles in shaping the political landscape. Gagauzia, a predominantly pro-Russian autonomous region, has been increasingly vocal against Chisinau's pivot towards the European Union.
Recent tensions escalated after the election of Evghenia Gutsul as başkan (governor), who is aligned with the pro-Russian party of fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor. Gutsul's administration openly criticized Moldova's European aspirations and threatened secession if Moldova pursued integration with the EU. Meanwhile, Transnistria, a breakaway region, sought to distance itself from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, demonstrating a desire to maintain stability amid geopolitical tensions.
There is uncertainty regarding the participation of these regions in the elections however. Currently, it appears that residents of Gagauzia and Transnistria may not be able to vote, as the Moldovan authorities typically do not include these areas in national elections. The exclusion of these regions could significantly impact voter turnout and the overall political dynamics, particularly given the local pro-Russian sentiments.
Expected voter turnout for Moldova's upcoming election is anticipated to be robust, fueled by significant enthusiasm among the electorate. A recent poll conducted by IRI indicates that approximately 75% of respondents are eager to participate in the electoral process. This strong interest suggests that voters are not only aware of the importance of the election but are also motivated by the chance to influence Moldova's direction regarding its European Union membership bid.
A referendum on EU integration will accompany the election, providing voters with the opportunity to voice their aspirations.
Hungary's veto on EU enlargement in 2023 complicated matters significantly, but after pressure from other leaders, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán dropped the veto on Moldova’s EU aspirations. Some analysts speculate that Orbán’s obstructionist tactics are designed to maintain Russian influence in Eastern Europe.
The implications of the upcoming election extend far beyond national borders. Should Sandu secure victory and successfully navigate the EU accession process, it could mark a turning point in Moldova's geopolitical standing — solidifying its orientation towards the West. Conversely, a victory for pro-Russian candidates could result in a far different path for Moldova, where ties with the EU are weakened and Moscow’s influence is emboldened.