Shigeru Ishiba: Japan’s New Prime Minister

Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (Photo: AP Newsroom)

On Oct. 1, Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was sworn into office. Ishiba is a member of the ruling LDP (Liberal Democratic Party), the same party as previous Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida and the late Shinzo Abe. After a string of corruption scandals, Kishida stepped down from office, paving the way for a new LDP leader’s rise as a means of quelling public discontent with the party. In the final round of the Japanese runoff elections, Ishiba narrowly beat out Sanae Takaichi, a former protégé of Shinzo Abe and a fellow member of the LDR (though with an ideology which differs heavily from Ishiba’s).

As opposed to Takaichi and much of the LDP’s elite, Ishiba is viewed as a relative political moderate and fierce critic of Shinzo Abe and the Abe doctrine. Ishiba believes in more progressive social policies and has confidence that the wider Japanese populace shares these views. Hence, Ishiba, a day prior to being sworn in, called for early general elections to be held on Oct. 27, a year earlier than required by Japanese law. Ishiba believes that the snap election will provide a potent shake-up in the Japanese parliament, which may award more seats to the liberal-wing of the LDP (and other Japanese left-wing parties) thus giving Ishiba a strong mandate from the people to start off his tenure.

When it comes to foreign policy, Ishiba’s views are more nuanced. While he differs from Abe’s views on some aspects – such as arguing for a more combative and independent stance with the US – he agrees with Abe on others, such as a close relationship with Taiwan. Ishiba, a self-proclaimed “Defence Otaku” (defense expert) believes that by asserting its own national policies, rather than blindly following that of the US, Japan can gain a greater role in the Indo-Pacific. Ishiba is hoping to strike a deal with the US that puts the two allies on more even terms by giving Japan joint-control over US military bases in Japan or by allowing Japanese troops to be stationed in Guam. 

Ishiba’s most notable comments were his statements about the creation of an Asian NATO. Ishiba argued that through Japan’s bilateral security agreement with the US, Japan shares quasi-alliances with other US allies such as South Korea, the Philippines, Canada, and the UK.. Ishiba believes that with a bit of reworking, this complex web of partnerships could be consolidated into a greater Asian NATO similar to NATO in Europe. Whereas NATO was created in 1949 to contain the USSR, the new Asian NATO would be intent on containing China.

Potential “Asian NATO” proposed by Ishiba: (Photo: TLDR Global)

Ishiba is not the first to ponder the possibility of an Asian NATO. Similar US-led Asian multilateral organizations such as AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) and the Quad (US, Japan, India, Australia) have sparked discussions over potential NATO-like partnerships in Asia. As of now, it is unclear how likely of a possibility an Asian NATO really is. It also remains unclear how the formation of an Asian NATO directly in opposition to China fits with Ishiba’s rhetoric of being less hawkish with China. Ishiba’s early actions in office, as well as his vision for Japan, will likely be determined by how well his faction performs in the upcoming snap elections.