Kursk Incursion: Ukraine’s Bold Advance Faces Tough Realities
Aug 9, 2024, a Russian military column moves to fight Ukrainian Forces in the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region of Russia. Photo: AP/Russian Defense Ministry Press Service
On Aug 6, 2024, Ukrainian armed forces launched an incursion into the Kursk region of Russia. More than 1,000 Ukrainian troops, backed by tanks and armored vehicles, caught Russia off guard, prompting Moscow to declare a state of emergency and rush reinforcements to the region.
The operation was characterized by CNN as successful but costly with both sides suffering heavy losses as Ukraine advanced, capturing multiple settlements and up to 1000 square kilometers of territory. According to Ukrainian intelligence officer Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Ukraine was at risk of losing ground before the surprise attack on Kursk which took advantage of Russia’s vulnerabilities in its defensive positions.
The operation’s success, however, relies on continued support from the West, especially in the form of long-ranged weaponry. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to appeal to President Joe Biden to lift restrictions on the usage of NATO long-ranged weaponry on Russian soil.As Lytvynenko noted, Ukraine must rely on asymmetric warfare, leveraging the surprise to offset Russia’s advantage in Donbas. While the initial stages of the Kursk incursion appeared to take Russia off guard, a recent report by The Guardian has since revealed that Russian military command had been preparing for such an attack months in advance. This raises questions about how effectively Ukraine’s surprise tactics will play out in the longer term, given Russia's foresight and strategic preparation.
Documents captured from abandoned Russian positions show that from as early as January 2024, Russian military command was preparing for a breakthrough at the border. There were detailed plans to fortify defenses and even create decoy positions. This new revelation could explain the offensive’s subsequent stagnation, with Russian forces regrouping and bolstering their defenses just in time.
The Ukrainian offensive, while initially seen as a bold success, came at a heavy cost. While Ukrainian forces managed to penetrate 30 kilometers into Russian territory, CNN reports that five weeks into the operation, Ukrainian soldiers began to question the decision. The strain of operating on unfamiliar ground, with poor visibility and navigational challenges, compounded by an overwhelming number of Russian reinforcements—including Wagner mercenaries—has led to high casualties and damaged equipment. Some soldiers described Kursk as one of the toughest operations since the beginning of the war.
Aug. 14, 2024, Ukrainian servicemen sit in their armored personnel carrier in Ukraine’s Sumy region, after returning from Russia’s Kursk region. Photo: AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka
Despite these challenges, morale remains high. The operation succeeded in providing Ukraine with a significant psychological boost. However, with Russia now counterattacking and sending 30,000 troops to Kursk, Ukraine finds itself in a grueling battle to maintain its gains. The high price paid in human lives and resources is already starting to weigh heavily on Ukraine’s strategy.
Navigational difficulties, unfamiliar terrain, and Russia’s strategic preparations further complicate Ukraine’s efforts. With Russia now mounting a counteroffensive and holding key logistical advantages, the long-term impact of the incursion remains uncertain. For Ukraine, maintaining its gains will require overcoming significant challenges, and the temporary boost in morale may fade if these obstacles prove too difficult to surmount.