US-Led Coalition in Iraq to Enter Transition Period in Fall of 2025

Major General Joel "J.B." Vowell, center, and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani, right, attend the first round of the negotiations between Iraq and the United States to end the International Coalition mission in Baghdad, Iraq, Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban, Pool)

Discussions of a transition period for the anti-ISIS US-led coalition in Iraq have been underway. If given the green light, this anticipated transitional period would introduce reductions in the 2,500 troops stationed in Iraq between September 2025 and the winter of 2026.

This transition does not intend to completely withdraw US troops, but rather shift the former military coalition while maintaining US presence on Iraqi soil. Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon's deputy press secretary, clarified that the “U.S. is not withdrawing from Iraq … Our footprint is going to be changing within the country.”’ Due to security purposes, the exact changes to the coalition are not explicitly outlined.

The US-led coalition in Iraq was formed on September 10, 2014 in efforts to combat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). During this time, Isis was acquiring large parts of Iraq and committing atrocities against local populations. Moreover, the Iraqi government post-9/11 remained weak and highly susceptible to infiltration by ISIS as it attempted to undermine the government and consolidate power. 

Iraq’s government under longtime doctor Saddam Hussein was toppled after former President George W. Bush first sent troops to the country in 2003. The United States had accused Iraq of being in possession of weapons of mass destruction – which was later debunked as false.  

Bush had given Hussein an ultimatum: leave the country within 48 hours or the US would invade. Despite efforts of diplomacy by France, Russia and Germany with attempts to provide Iraq more time to comply with the expectations of the UN – including readmitting arms inspectors to verify whether nuclear weapons were actually held in Iraq – the US nevertheless invaded. 

When the war ceased in 2011, the government of Iraq was in a vulnerable position, allowing ISIS to gain ground and power. The US promptly established the anti-ISIS coalition three years later to combat the group and stabilize the region.

A senior fellow for the Middle East Institute Research Center said that the “U.S. withdrawal from Iraq isn’t because ISIS has disappeared ...The withdrawal is because there’s a significant proportion of the policy-making community in Baghdad that doesn’t want American troops on Iraqi soil.”

Whether or not the anti-ISIS coalition was a success is heavily debated. 

Those against the coalition cite the continued fragility of Iraq’s government along with the damage caused in the process of driving out ISIS. The lack of a strong and stable government makes the fear of an ISIS takeover an ever present threat to the legitimacy of the Iraqi government. Additionally, in the coalition’s efforts to drive out ISIL, it caused grave devastation to civilians. Within the last 10 years, nearly 30,000 civilians died in both Syria and Iraq as a result of the coalition’s operation. 

On the contrary, supporters of the initiative point to the campaign’s success in driving ISIS from 95% of the territory it had acquired in Iraq by 2017. Moreover, some believe that given the United State’s central role in destabilizing the Iraqi government through its initial invasion, it should continue to play a role in re-stabilizing the state. 

Some go further, believing the only way to achieve this is by having US troops on the ground through an initiative such as the coalition. Therefore, reducing troops could make Iraq vulnerable to corruption and opens the potential for ISIS to once again expand its power throughout the country.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, center, chairs the first sessions of negotiations between Iraq and the United States to wind down the U.S.-led international coalition mission in Baghdad, Iraq, Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban, Pool)

These prospective transitional changes in the coalition result from half a year of back and forth discussions between Baghdad and Washington. The Prime Minister of Iraq, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, stated that US forces have often caused instability, become frequent targets of Iranian proxies, and acted not in accordance with the Iraqi government. These have likely been key motives for the transition. 

In conclusion, notable developments in Iraq’s defense strategy and relationship with the US and regional stakeholders are to be expected as a response to this transition plan.