The Race to Join the EU: What Comes Next After Referendum Vote in Moldova

Moldovan citizens cast their vote for the EU referendum and presidential election on Sunday October 20th. (Source: AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)

On Sunday, October 20th, Moldova held a referendum vote on joining the European Union (EU), alongside its planned presidential elections. The referendum results were far closer than expected, with the Yes vote at 50.46% and the No vote at 49.54%. Both the Moldovan government and the EU  have hinted that Russia interfered  with the vote and contributed to the margin of less than one percent. Moldova’s incumbent, pro-EU president, Maia Sandu, also faced a tight re-election battle, leading to a second round election next month.

The referendum took place following Moldova's application for EU membership less than two weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The war in Ukraine sparked Moldova's fears of its own Russian invasion. In June 2022, both Moldova and Ukraine were granted official candidacy by the EU. Moldova's geographical location and historical ties have positioned it at a crossroads between the EU and Russia. The referendum vote was seen as a critical juncture for Moldova to solidify its path towards European integration and protection. Public sentiment was expected to favor EU membership, making the close results surprising.

Moldova's President Maia Sandu speaks to the media after casting her vote in Chisinau, Moldova (Source: AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)

The referendum results have significant implications for Moldova's EU membership process. The shaky outcome has raised doubts about the inevitability of joining the EU, and the narrow margin of victory highlights possible divisions within Moldovan society regarding its future alignment. The outcome of the referendum has also prompted discussions about Russian influence in Moldova's internal affairs. Accusations of Russian interference have further complicated the country's path towards EU membership. Both EU Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen and High Representative Josep Borrell have reiterated support for Moldovan membership to the EU following Monday's referendum results.

However, the next steps in the membership process are now subject to increased scrutiny. The EU, which had anticipated a positive outcome from the referendum, now faces the challenge of navigating the uncertain trajectory of Moldova's integration process. Though the EU does not require an official public opinion vote, it does take the will of the people into account during the negotiation process. 

Moving forward, Moldova must address the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in the EU accession process. The country will need to demonstrate its commitment to implementing necessary reforms and meeting the criteria set forth by the EU for membership. Moldova's progress towards EU membership will be closely monitored, with a focus on its ability to align with EU standards and values.

To progress, Moldova must address key criteria for membership, such as strengthening democratic institutions, enhancing the rule of law, and advancing economic reforms. While Moldova has made progress in certain areas, challenges persist, including corruption, fragile institutions, and unresolved conflicts, which impede its accession process.

In comparison to other countries in the region, Moldova's journey towards EU membership presents a unique set of circumstances. Unlike Ukraine, Moldova's membership may face less volatility but its geographic proximity to the war will certainly be taken into account. Moldova's journey towards EU integration can be compared to other countries in the Balkans, such as North Macedonia and Montenegro, which have made significant strides in their accession process. However, Moldova is still in the early stages compared to these countries, and the timeline for ascension remains uncertain, dependent on the country's ability to implement necessary reforms effectively and the progression of the war in Ukraine.