Leaked Documents Reveal Israel's Intentions for Retaliation Against Iran Amid Rising Tensions
President Joe Biden talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House, July 25, 2024. U.S. officials report that the Biden Administration believes that Israel will not strike Iranian nuclear or oil strikes as Israel plans to retaliate following Iran’s missile barrage early that month. (Photo: AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
US investigators are inspecting how a pair of highly classified intelligence documents leaked online. The two documents that surfaced on the messaging platform Telegram last Friday purportedly detail a US assessment of Israel's plans to strike Iran.
The files initially surfaced on the Telegram channel Middle East Spectator, which provides news and commentary on the region.
On Monday, John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, stated that President Joe Biden was "deeply concerned" about the leak. Kirby declares that officials have not yet established whether the documents were made public from a hack or a leak.
Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, stated that the US is extensively investigating the leak; however, there is no legitimate confirmation that these documents are entirely authentic.
For the past three weeks, Israel has been promising to respond strongly to Iran’s large-scale ballistic missile attack on Oct. 1. Iran claims that the attack was in retaliation for Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sep. 27.
Missiles launched from Iran towards Israel, photographed from the Palestinian city of Nablus, Oct 1, 2024. (Photo: AP Photo/Majdi Mohammad)
Collectively, the two documents represent a classified US assessment of Israel’s plans to strike targets in Iran, informed by intelligence analyzed by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency on Oct. 15 and 16.
What stands out particularly in the documents is the mention of Golden Horizon and Rocks, two Air-launched Ballistic Missile (ALBM) systems.
Rocks is a long-range missile system developed by the Israeli company Rafael, designed to strike a range of targets both above and below the surface. Golden Horizon is believed to refer to the Blue Sparrow missile system, which has a range of approximately 2,012 kilometers (1,250 miles).
This suggests that the Israeli Air Force intends to conduct a much larger version of its ABLM attack on an Iranian radar site that took place in April.
By launching these weapons from a long distance and away from Iran's borders, Israel can avoid requiring its warplanes to fly over specific countries in the region, such as Jordan.
If these documents are genuine – a highly likely prospect – they reveal that despite the strong defense relationship between the US and Israel, Washington still closely monitors its ally. At Israel's request, the US government has never publicly recognized that its close ally possesses nuclear weapons.
Notably missing from these documents is any mention of what specific targets in Iran Israel aims to hit or when such attacks will occur. Part of the current delay in Israel's response is likely influenced by US concerns about escalation, especially with the imminent US presidential elections.
"I am aware of how Israel plans to respond and the timing," Biden told reporters during a trip to Germany last week. However, he did not provide further details and has not announced any diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict from escalating.
In summary, if Israel proceeds with these plans, the Middle East is likely to face a renewed period of intense tension.