Tensions Escalate on the Border between Russia and Poland in Kaliningrad

The fence along the Polish-Belarusian border, Aug. 26, 2021 Photo: REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

On Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2022, the general secretary of the ruling Law and Justice Party in Poland said that they were considering building a structure along its border with Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave along the Baltic Sea. 

Poland alleges that Russia and Belarus are manufacturing a migrant crisis by flying asylum seekers to the European Union to Kaliningrad. 

Since November 2021, tensions have grown between Poland and Belarus under similar circumstances. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki alleged that Belarus had directed migrants to the Polish border to strain “the security of [the] eastern border.” With the War in Ukraine ongoing, the physical cordoning of Kaliningrad would escalate tensions in the already anxious Baltic region.

The awkward position of Kaliningrad between Poland, Belarus, and Lithuania has added a new front of hybrid warfare to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A relic of the Second World War, this region was the preeminent Soviet navy base surrounded by aligned client states. 

Now, the estranged exclave has emerged to be both a liability and asset to Russian national interests, redirecting resources and attention from the frontlines in Eastern and Southern Ukraine to the Baltic coast.

Map of Suwalki Gap, 2022 Source: The Guardian

The position of the oblast creates a chokepoint for NATO forces known as the Suwalki Gap. Located near its namesake town in Poland, the 60-mile passage between Kaliningrad and Belarus represents the only connection between the three minor Baltic nations, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, and the rest of the NATO allies. 

Military analysts that spoke to the Guardian  reflected that this would be the first place to strike should Putin escalate the invasion into a continental conflict. With two roads and one railway, the ease of closing this gap has “alarmed” EU representatives. 

Kaliningrad also houses military installations for projecting Russian power. Since the war began, the Kremlin has redirected much of its military assets to the front lines in Ukraine, diminishing its tactical threat. 

Yet, Kaliningrad still poses a strategic threat to the region. The oblast retains much of its military infrastructure, allowing it to be “bristling” with missiles and other armaments again. Should the Kremlin decide to rearm the oblast and use it in a future invasion, it would be more than capable of dealing considerable damage to NATO nations.  

However, Kaliningrad’s isolation from the Russian mainland challenges the Kremlin’s efforts to secure and supply the oblast. The city of Kaliningrad, where the vast majority of the oblast’s population resides, is dependent on importing much of its goods, including electricity, from its neighboring nations. 

Since Lithuania shut down its rail connection with the city in June, Russia has resorted to ferrying imports from St. Petersburg. The rail ban has threatened the supply of goods for the almost 1 million residents of Kaliningrad, forcing them to support Vladimir Putin’s territorial ambitions with their austerity.   

Russia failed to de-escalate after Poland’s considerations, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov telling reporters “that walls have fallen all through history.” 

This Russian response signals that they seek to maintain their defensive posture in the region, with Kaliningrad’s strategic position serving as the Russian avenue for exerting its control on the Baltic region and Central Europe.