North Korea Launches Missiles in Response to U.S.-South Korea Military Drills

Pyongyang showcases missiles during a military parade. (Sue-Lin Wong/Reuters)

North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles into the East Sea on Monday, escalating regional tensions amid ongoing military drills between the United States and South Korea. According to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, the missiles were launched from an area near Pyongyang. Japan’s Defense Ministry confirmed that the projectiles landed outside its exclusive economic zone, posing no immediate threat to Japanese territory.

Initial assessments suggest the missiles were short- to medium-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs or MRBMs), designed for rapid regional strikes. The launch coincided with the start of Freedom Shield, a large-scale U.S.-South Korea military exercise that Pyongyang has long condemned as a rehearsal for invasion. In response, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi denounced the test as a "clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions,” while the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command reaffirmed its "ironclad commitment" to regional security.

Historically, North Korea has followed a consistent pattern of provocations in response to military exercises and diplomatic setbacks. In 2022, Pyongyang launched over 90 missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), in reaction to similar joint drills. Similar spikes were observed in 2017 and 2019, when North Korea used missile tests to push back against U.S. military pressure. In the days leading up to the launch on Monday, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry warned that they could lead to "uncontrollable confrontation." The test serves to demonstrate military strength as well as to rally domestic support during a time of severely strained economy due to international sanctions, food shortages, and limited trade.

Recent intelligence reports indicate that North Korea’s missile accuracy and reliability have significantly improved. U.S. and South Korean assessments suggest that Pyongyang’s latest tests demonstrate enhanced guidance systems and lower circular error probable (CEP)—a key measure of accuracy. Previously, North Korean missiles had been known for their poor precision, but newer models show greater consistency in reaching intended targets.

North Korea's missile arsenal. (CSIS Missile Defense Project, Japanese Ministry of Defense)

A critical advancement is North Korea’s transition to solid-fuel ICBMs, particularly with the Hwasong-18 and Hwasong-19. Unlike liquid-fueled missiles, which require lengthy preparation and are more vulnerable to preemptive strikes, solid-fuel missiles can be launched more rapidly and from concealed locations. This technological shift enhances North Korea’s first-strike and second-strike capabilities, making its arsenal more difficult to neutralize in a conflict.

Pyongyang has also made strides in hypersonic technology, developing maneuverable warheads capable of evading missile defense systems like Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Aegis. Reports suggest North Korea is integrating satellite-based navigation technology, further improving targeting precision and operational effectiveness. These developments indicate a significant shift from North Korea’s previous reliance on outdated missile systems toward a more modern and sophisticated arsenal.

The international response to North Korea’s missile tests has long been centered around economic sanctions, military deterrence, and limited diplomatic engagement, but the effectiveness of these strategies remains contested. U.S.-led sanctions, enforced through the U.N. Security Council, have significantly weakened North Korea’s economy, restricting access to foreign financial institutions and limiting its ability to develop advanced weapons systems. However, China and Russia have repeatedly opposed harsher measures, weakening enforcement and providing Pyongyang with economic lifelines that allow it to continue its weapons programs.

Sanctions have also had limited success in deterring North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. While they have placed economic pressure on the regime, they have not prevented the development of ICBMs and hypersonic weapons (CFR). North Korea has instead adapted by strengthening illicit trade networks, engaging in cybercrime, and conducting arms sales to countries like Russia. With the Kim regime unwilling to denuclearize, the U.S. and its allies must consider whether sanctions alone are sufficient or if additional deterrence measures are needed.

Increased military deterrence is another option, but it risks further escalation. South Korea, under President Yoon Suk-yeol, has been expanding its military capabilities, investing in advanced missile defense systems and strengthening its alliance with the U.S. and Japan. In response to North Korea’s advancements, Seoul has pursued closer security cooperation with Washington, including increased deployment of U.S. strategic assets such as nuclear-capable bombers and submarines. However, these steps have prompted North Korea to escalate its weapons testing, raising concerns that the cycle of provocation and response will continue indefinitely.

Diplomatic engagement remains a potential, albeit difficult, alternative. The last major negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea collapsed in 2019, and Pyongyang has since refused to return to the table without sanctions relief. While some analysts argue that offering limited economic incentives in exchange for a temporary freeze on missile testing could stabilize the situation, others believe that diplomatic overtures may only embolden Pyongyang without yielding concrete results.