South Korea’s 2024 Elections: What to Know
South Korean voters view a line of campaign posters for various candidates on March 28, the opening of the Korean election season. (Photo: AP News/Ahn Young-joon)
People across the world have already started eyeing the U.S. presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but there’s another high-stakes election across the Pacific.
On April 10, South Korea will elect a new National Assembly, the country’s 300-member unicameral legislature. The results will in large part indicate citizens’ satisfaction with President Yoon Suk Yeol, elected in 2022, and his conservative People Power Party (PPP), while also testing the mettle of the main opposition, the more liberal Democratic Party (DP), which seeks to keep Yoon from gaining momentum as it looks ahead to the 2027 presidential election. With official campaigning having begun on March 28, the increasingly polarized country is well aware of the victors’ ability to shape policy both at home and abroad.
The stakes are high for Yoon. Having beaten then-Democratic candidate and current party leader Lee Jae-myung by only 0.73 percent in 2022, Yoon has since sought to reform the government, focusing on education, pensions, healthcare, and labor. His foreign policy has grown increasingly hawkish as well, as he seeks to bring the country ever closer to the United States in the face of a rising China. However, he has already been hampered by the Assembly, in which the opposition holds nearly 60% of seats, as well as by a dismal 34% approval rating and a struggling economy. Without a cooperative legislature for the remaining three years of his term, the term-limited Yoon would essentially be a lame duck, making his policy ideals that much harder to achieve. Others face tests as well: Han Dong-hoon, the PPP leader, seeks to solidify his position ahead of a potential 2027 run, while Lee hopes to politically overcome an indictment last year, centered around a development scandal during his time as mayor of Seongnam.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol meets with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House. As China becomes increasingly aggressive in the Indo-Pacific, Yoon has sought to tie South Korea closer to the United States. (Photo: AP News/Evan Vucci)
Current polling data presents a complicated picture. Between the two major parties, a March 5-7 poll shows the PPP leading the race so far with 37% support, as the DP trails at 31%. Polling averages reflect similar figures. However, third parties have emerged as potential spoilers, hoping to gain leverage in a closely divided Assembly. The dominant example this cycle is the Rebuilding Korea Party founded by Cho Kuk, who served as justice minister under former President Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party. The party would likely ally with the DP in the Assembly, courting former Moon allies disillusioned with Lee’s leadership. Rebuilding Korea is only running for the 46 Assembly seats that are assigned via proportional representation, meaning they are given to parties based on vote share, but pollsters predict it could win up to 10 seats, potentially enough to prevent either the DP or PPP from winning a majority. This is despite Cho’s own baggage: he is accused of manipulating documents to boost his children’s chances of college admission, a claim he has vociferously denied.
Faced with each other’s threats, both parties have gone on the attack so far in South Korea’s 13-day campaign period. The DP and PPP held dueling rallies in Seoul on Thursday, seeking to present their visions to the public. Across the country, trucks and loudspeakers have been set up in open spaces as well, and debates between various candidates of the major party are set to continue until April 4th. PPP and DP messaging has been overwhelmingly negative so far. The PPP has blasted both Lee and Cho for their criminal charges, with Han telling supporters he will “let the criminals face consequences.” The DP has continued to slam Yoon for South Korea’s economic woes, asking voters to consider the election a referendum on the current government. South Koreans themselves, meanwhile, face only a scant few days to make a potentially decisive choice.