With Pressures Rising Two Months Before Elections, Turkey's Opposition Reshuffles
Despite a devastating earthquake last month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says that national elections scheduled for May 14, 2023 will move forward as planned. The elections approach amid an increasingly volatile political situation, marked by infighting in the opposition, the repression of certain voices of dissent, and attacks on minorities. This includes a Feb. 21 ban on the social networking and discussion site Ekşi Sözlük, which was particularly popular with opposition bloggers, for alleged misinformation.
On March 3, the far-right IYI Party, headed by Meral Akşener, announced that it would be leaving the Table of Six, Turkey’s main opposition alliance, over the nomination of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) as the opposition presidential candidate. Kılıçdaroğlu had the backing of the conservative/Islamist Felicity Party (Temel Karamollaoğlu, SP), the liberal conservative Democrat Party (Gültekin Uysal, DP), the Democracy and Progress Party (Ali Babacan, DEVA), and the Future Party (Ahmet Davutoğlu, GP), the latter two of which are breakaway factions of ex-AKP ministers.
However, Akşener (IYIP) apparently preferred either the left-leaning Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu (CHP) or center-right Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas (also CHP) to Kılıçdaroğlu– a stance representative of the extensive range of political views the opposition coalition represents. Akşener’s announcement threw the already precarious equilibrium of Turkish politics into disarray. The remaining opposition coalition then announced that it would field Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu with İmamoğlu and Yavas joining the other Table of Six leaders as “vice presidents”. After several days of confusion, Akşener and IYIP tentatively agreed to rejoin the coalition on March 6.
The political situation has been inflamed by several startling protests at recent soccer matches. On Feb. 25, fans of the Fenerbahçe soccer team protested the government’s response to the Feb. 6 earthquake; they were banned from traveling to a later match. On Feb. 26, Beşiktaş fans held a similar protest, chanting “government resignation.” On March 6, a soccer game in the city of Bursa, in northwestern Turkey, was interrupted when fans began chanting ultra-nationalist anti-Kurdish slogans at members of the Amedspor soccer team, from the predominantly Kurdish city of Diyarbakir. Fans threw bottles and knives at players and several people were arrested. Fireworks were also fired at the team hotel in a series of racist attacks. While the government condemned the attacks, Erdoğan’s policies in recent years have involved the suppression of Kurdish political parties in an ostensible response to terror attacks by Kurdish insurgent groups.
The incumbent candidate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s president since 2014, is favored to win reelection. Erdoğan, of the populist, conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP), was once the mayor of Istanbul; his time in office has been defined by a currency collapse, an increasingly non-democratic government (especially following a 2016 coup attempt), and a nuanced foreign policy situating Turkey as a strong regional power mediating between the United States and Russia. Other issues of concern have been Greco-Turkish relations, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the presence of 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey amid the ongoing Syrian Civil War.
Erdoğan’s government was heavily criticized for its initial delayed response to a devastating earthquake last month, with the death toll exacerbated by corruption and political infighting. It has been praised domestically for taking on a stronger role in NATO and on the world stage. Erdoğan’s AKP is running in coalition with the far-right and ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
A former long-time parliamentarian from an Alevi family in eastern Turkey, Kılıçdaroğlu has never won national elections in his 13 years as a perennial opposition candidate from the CHP. However, his party showed strong results in the 2019 elections, especially in cities like Istanbul. He has a reputation as an “ethical bureaucrat”, but lacks the cult of personality and charisma that made Erdoğan so popular. However, beyond the Table of Six, he has the support of several left-leaning parties.
A third prominent candidate is Muharrem Ince, a center-right secular nationalist from the Kemalist (i.e. Ataturk-inspired) Homeland Party (MP) and a former CHP parliamentarian. Ince is also known for accidentally originating a viral TikTok dance trend (“çare ince”). There is a possibility that the far-right politician Ümit Özdağ will tell his supporters to vote for Ince, which could further split the right-opposition vote. Before Akşener rejoined the Table of Six, there was speculation that Özdağ, Ince, and Akşener could form a far-right coalition.
The Republican People’s Party (CHP, represented by Kılıçdaroğlu) is also courting Kurdish votes. However, the opposition alliance headed by CHP will not outright endorse the predominantly-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), Turkey’s second-largest opposition party, because it could lose right-wing support (especially from the IYIP).
Polling data from Areda from Feb. 23-27 (before coalition changes), released March 6, 2023. Graphic: Julia Kempton.
One Turkish student at NYU outlined the following scenarios:
Scenario I: In the first round of voting, the opposition splits; the right-wing opposition votes for Muharrem Ince, and the left and center vote for the opposition coalition. No one gets more than 50% of the votes outright, but Kılıçdaroğlu beats Erdoğan in a run-off with Ince’s support.
Scenario II: Erdoğan wins the second round against Kılıçdaroğlu.
Scenario III: Either the coalition candidate, (Kılıçdaroğlu) wins the first round or Erdoğan is reelected outright.
Scenario IV: Ince takes a surprise upset and faces Erdoğan in the second round.
Scenario V: Erdoğan drops out of the race, as he has already reached his constitutional term limit.
Scenario VI: Erdoğan postpones the elections on account of the Feb. 6 earthquake, nearby conflicts, or some other disaster.
The latter three situations are extremely unlikely, given the divided state of Turkish politics and the apparent zeal with which Erdoğan is attempting to hold on to power. The election will almost certainly come down to a run-off between Erdoğan and some opposition candidate, but the outcome of the 2023 Turkish Presidential Election is anyone’s guess.
Tags: Turkey, Elections, Kurdistan, Soccer